Castellanzese 1-1 Caravaggio — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie D, 4 Feb 2024

📅04/02/2024 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.38
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
33%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under
50%
Over
50%
Both Teams to Score
Yes Pick
54%
No
46%
Total Goals
0-1
22%
2-3
49%
4-5
21%
6+
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
7%
1/X
4%
X/1
9%
X/2
14%
X/X
17%
2/1
8%
2/2
12%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
BTTS Yes — 54%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
42%
Home Win
38%
+4.1pp
25%
Draw
26%
-1.6pp
33%
Away Win
36%
-2.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Castellanzese The Market 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Caravaggio The Market 40%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -45% / -45%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -42% / -71%
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
345 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 299 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Castellanzese
1-1
AWAY Caravaggio
44% Ball Possession 56%
15 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 8
POST-MATCH Castellanzese vs Caravaggio
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Castellanzese and Caravaggio couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was Castellanzese at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Castellanzese had 44% of the ball to Caravaggio's 56%, shots finished 15-13.

What was the final score of Castellanzese vs Caravaggio?

Castellanzese 1-1 Caravaggio in the Italy - Serie D on 04/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Castellanzese vs Caravaggio?

Before kick-off our model rated a Castellanzese win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Castellanzese 42%, draw 25%, Caravaggio 33%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Castellanzese) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Castellanzese) ✓ BTTS Yes
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