04/02/2024
·
16:30
Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score
1-1
2nd Score
0-1
Manfredonia vs Paganese Prediction — Model Probabilities
MODEL
iddaakolik
· Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
53%
Over
47%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
No
50%
Total Goals
0-1
30%
2-3
40%
4-5
23%
6+
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
5%
X/2
12%
X/X
9%
2/1
5%
2/2
23%
2/X
13%
PRO
iddaakolik
· Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 53% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik
Selection
The Market
29%
Home Win
25%
29%
Draw
24%
42%
Away Win
52%
gold — our model
green — our served pick
grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Manfredonia v Paganese — Team-Based Signals
PREVIEW
Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME
Manfredonia
The Market 29%
Head to Head
AWAY
Paganese
The Market 56%
+64% /
+64%
Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations
-66% /
-66%
2.00/1.00
Expected GoalsScored / Conceded
0.00/3.00
+61%
/
+4%
Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.)
-100%
/
-59%
46%
Ball Possession
54%
10
Total Shots
11
3
Shots on Target
4
4
Corners
6
258 · 72%
PassesSuccessful · Accuracy
403 · 81%
–
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
–
–
Crosses
–
–
Yellow Cards
–
POST-MATCH
Manfredonia vs Paganese
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened
Manfredonia beat Paganese 2-0.
Our pre-match lean was Paganese at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.
What was the final score of Manfredonia vs Paganese?
Manfredonia 2-0 Paganese in the Italy - Serie D on 04/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Manfredonia vs Paganese?
Before kick-off our model rated an Paganese win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Manfredonia 29%, draw 29%, Paganese 42%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Paganese) went the other way.
✗ Match Result (Paganese)
✓ Under 2.5
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4 Feb 2024