04/02/2024
·
16:30
Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score
2-0
2nd Score
1-0
Poggibonsi vs Pianese Prediction — Model Probabilities
MODEL
iddaakolik
· Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Under/Over 2.5
Under
46%
Over
54%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
No
52%
Total Goals
0-1
26%
2-3
41%
4-5
26%
6+
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
19%
X/2
11%
X/X
9%
2/1
5%
2/2
5%
2/X
9%
PRO
iddaakolik
· Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
Poggibonsi win — 56% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH
Home Win
— pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik
Selection
The Market
56%
Home Win
82%
23%
Draw
11%
21%
Away Win
7%
gold — our model
green — our served pick
grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Poggibonsi v Pianese — Team-Based Signals
PREVIEW
Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME
Poggibonsi
The Market 87%
Head to Head
AWAY
Pianese
The Market 9%
+0% /
+0%
Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations
+28% /
+28%
–/–
Expected GoalsScored / Conceded
–/–
–
/
–
Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.)
-100%
/
–
51%
Ball Possession
49%
13
Total Shots
10
7
Shots on Target
3
6
Corners
4
374 · 81%
PassesSuccessful · Accuracy
314 · 75%
–
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
–
–
Crosses
–
–
Yellow Cards
–
POST-MATCH
Poggibonsi vs Pianese
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened
Poggibonsi got the better of Pianese 2-0.
Just as the model leaned, our model had Poggibonsi as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.
What was the final score of Poggibonsi vs Pianese?
Poggibonsi 2-0 Pianese in the Italy - Serie D on 04/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Poggibonsi vs Pianese?
Before kick-off our model rated a Poggibonsi win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Poggibonsi 56%, draw 23%, Pianese 21%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Poggibonsi), BTTS No — while Over 2.5 went the other way.
✓ Match Result (Poggibonsi)
✗ Over 2.5
✓ BTTS No
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İTD
More Italy - Serie D
4 Feb 2024