Prato 1-0 Progresso — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie D, 4 Feb 2024

📅04/02/2024 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.53
Draw
28%
3.45
Away
38%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under
50%
Over Pick
50%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
No
50%
Total Goals
0-1
26%
2-3
38%
4-5
25%
6+
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
9%
1/X
9%
X/1
10%
X/2
16%
X/X
12%
2/1
8%
2/2
13%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 50%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
34%
Home Win
36%
-1.9pp
28%
Draw
26%
+2.5pp
38%
Away Win
39%
-0.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Prato The Market 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Progresso The Market 43%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
54% Ball Possession 46%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
284 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 407 · 82%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Prato
1-0
AWAY Progresso
52% Ball Possession 48%
6 Total Shots 7
3 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 4
POST-MATCH Prato vs Progresso
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Prato squeezed past Progresso 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 34% / 28% / 38% — and on the day Prato made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Prato had 52% of the ball to Progresso's 48%, shots finished 6-7.

What was the final score of Prato vs Progresso?

Prato 1-0 Progresso in the Italy - Serie D on 04/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Prato vs Progresso?

Before kick-off our model rated an Progresso win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Prato 34%, draw 28%, Progresso 38%. The final score 1-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Progresso)
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