Karabağ 3-1 Shamakhi — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Azerbaijan - Cup, 4 Mar 2026

📅04/03/2026 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
74%
1.27
Draw
14%
5.15
Away
12%
8.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
40%
2.15
Over 2.5
60%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
2.29
No
52%
1.55
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
29%
6+ Goals
14%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
47%
1/2
3%
1/X
5%
X/1
18%
X/2
5%
X/X
6%
2/1
9%
2/2
4%
2/X
3%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
74%
Home Win
75%
-0.9pp
14%
Draw
17%
-3.0pp
13%
Away Win
9%
+3.9pp
40%
Under 2.5
43%
-2.9pp
60%
Over 2.5
57%
+2.9pp
48%
BTTS Yes
40%
+8.7pp
52%
BTTS No
60%
-8.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Karabağ EU Bookmakers 79%
Head to Head
AWAY Shamakhi EU Bookmakers 11%
-15% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -19% / -19%
2.65/1.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.73/2.46
+24% / -58% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / -12%
59% Ball Possession 41%
17 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
433 · 86% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 209 · 70%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.8 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Karabağ
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Shamakhi
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
10.02.2026 Shamakhi Shamakhi 1-2 HT 1-1 Karabağ Karabağ AZERS
05.02.2026 Shamakhi Shamakhi 2-1 HT 2-0 Karabağ Karabağ AZERK
26.10.2025 Karabağ Karabağ 0-0 HT 0-0 Shamakhi Shamakhi AZERS
17.01.2025 Karabağ Karabağ 3-2 HT 2-2 Shamakhi Shamakhi AZERS
19.12.2024 Shamakhi Shamakhi 0-1 HT 0-0 Karabağ Karabağ AZERS
27.10.2024 Karabağ Karabağ 3-0 HT 0-0 Shamakhi Shamakhi AZERS
POST-MATCH Karabağ vs Shamakhi
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Karabağ saw off Shamakhi 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Karabağ as the likeliest winner at 74%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (60%), and that read landed as well.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Karabağ had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Karabağ and 0.83 for Shamakhi.

What was the final score of Karabağ vs Shamakhi?

Karabağ 3-1 Shamakhi in the Azerbaijan - Cup on 04/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Karabağ vs Shamakhi?

Before kick-off our model rated a Karabağ win the most likely single outcome at about 74%, with the full match-result split Karabağ 74%, draw 14%, Shamakhi 13%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Karabağ), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Karabağ) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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