Sturm Graz 2-0 Rapid Wien — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Austria - Bundesliga, 4 Apr 2025

📅04/04/2025 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
2.46
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
25%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.9
Over 2.5
52%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.68
No
50%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
3.43
2-3 Goals
35%
1.84
4-5 Goals
28%
3.62
6+ Goals
10%
14.1
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
3.75
1/2
4%
28.5
1/X
5%
12.85
X/1
16%
5.76
X/2
11%
5.9
X/X
16%
4.66
2/1
12%
28.0
2/2
9%
3.9
2/X
6%
12.9
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
37%
+12.1pp
26%
Draw
27%
-0.8pp
25%
Away Win
36%
-11.3pp
48%
Under 2.5
49%
-0.6pp
52%
Over 2.5
51%
+0.6pp
50%
BTTS Yes
56%
-5.1pp
50%
BTTS No
44%
+5.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sturm Graz EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Rapid Wien EU Bookmakers 39%
-7% / -24% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -15%
1.19/1.37 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.37/1.43
+13% / -17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / -20%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
300 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 283 · 71%
18.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.5
20.8 Crosses 19.7
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sturm Graz
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Rapid Wien
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.22 xG 1.63
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
306 Passes 314
76% Pass Accuracy 77%
20 Box Touches 24
19 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
02.11.2024 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 1-1 HT 0-0 Rapid Wien Rapid Wien AVU
04.08.2024 Rapid Wien Rapid Wien 1-0 HT 1-0 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AVU
01.05.2024 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 2-1 HT 0-1 Rapid Wien Rapid Wien AUK
24.04.2024 Rapid Wien Rapid Wien 1-3 HT 1-3 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AVU
19.04.2024 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 1-0 HT 0-0 Rapid Wien Rapid Wien AVU
18.02.2024 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 1-1 HT 1-1 Rapid Wien Rapid Wien AVU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sturm Graz
2-0
AWAY Rapid Wien
1.23 xG 1.14
43% Ball Possession 57%
11 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 6
240 Passes 351
77% Pass Accuracy 85%
21 Box Touches 17
19 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Sturm Graz vs Rapid Wien
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sturm Graz beat Rapid Wien 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Sturm Graz as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Sturm Graz had 43% of the ball to Rapid Wien's 57%, shots finished 11-10, expected goals 1.23 to 1.14.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sturm Graz had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Sturm Graz and 0.83 for Rapid Wien.

What was the final score of Sturm Graz vs Rapid Wien?

Sturm Graz 2-0 Rapid Wien in the Austria - Bundesliga on 04/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sturm Graz vs Rapid Wien?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sturm Graz win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Sturm Graz 49%, draw 26%, Rapid Wien 25%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sturm Graz) — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Sturm Graz) ✗ Over 2.5
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