Nagoya Grampus 3-0 Cerezo Osaka — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 4 Apr 2026

📅04/04/2026 · 🕒09:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.27
Draw
23%
3.35
Away
38%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.0
Over 2.5
55%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.61
No
42%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.53
2-3 Goals
40%
1.75
4-5 Goals
27%
3.06
6+ Goals
10%
10.45
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
10%
1/X
7%
X/1
15%
X/2
14%
X/X
8%
2/1
6%
2/2
14%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
40%
-0.8pp
23%
Draw
26%
-3.5pp
38%
Away Win
34%
+4.2pp
45%
Under 2.5
46%
-1.0pp
55%
Over 2.5
54%
+1.0pp
58%
BTTS Yes
58%
+0.5pp
42%
BTTS No
42%
-0.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nagoya Grampus EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Cerezo Osaka EU Bookmakers 37%
+3% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -10%
1.27/1.08 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.46/1.47
-12% / +24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / -4%
51% Ball Possession 49%
15 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
388 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 344 · 80%
18.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.3
16.7 Crosses 17.1
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Nagoya Grampus
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Cerezo Osaka
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.42 xG 1.12
42% Ball Possession 58%
10 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
286 Passes 416
76% Pass Accuracy 82%
23 Box Touches 26
23 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
04.10.2025 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus 2-1 HT 2-0 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JAP
08.03.2025 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 1-1 HT 1-0 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus JAP
30.06.2024 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 2-1 HT 1-0 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus JAP
21.04.2024 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus 2-1 HT 0-0 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JAP
26.08.2023 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 3-1 HT 1-1 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus JAP
03.06.2023 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus 3-1 HT 3-1 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nagoya Grampus
3-0
AWAY Cerezo Osaka
1.81 xG 1.43
41% Ball Possession 59%
13 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 6
212 Passes 362
71% Pass Accuracy 79%
28 Box Touches 21
26 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Nagoya Grampus vs Cerezo Osaka
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Nagoya Grampus cruised past Cerezo Osaka 3-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (39% / 23% / 38%) promised a tight game; Nagoya Grampus found the edge the numbers couldn't. On goals, over 2.5 goals (55%) landed while both teams to score (58%) missed.

On the day, Nagoya Grampus had 41% of the ball to Cerezo Osaka's 59%, shots finished 13-14, expected goals 1.81 to 1.43.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Nagoya Grampus had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Nagoya Grampus and 1.50 for Cerezo Osaka.

What was the final score of Nagoya Grampus vs Cerezo Osaka?

Nagoya Grampus 3-0 Cerezo Osaka in the Japan - J1 League on 04/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nagoya Grampus vs Cerezo Osaka?

Before kick-off our model rated a Nagoya Grampus win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Nagoya Grampus 39%, draw 23%, Cerezo Osaka 38%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Nagoya Grampus), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Nagoya Grampus) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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