Nagoya Grampus 2-1 Cerezo Osaka — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 4 Oct 2025

📅04/10/2025 · 🕒07:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.47
Draw
24%
3.35
Away
36%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.03
Over 2.5
56%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.61
No
42%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.72
2-3 Goals
38%
1.81
4-5 Goals
26%
3.11
6+ Goals
12%
10.45
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
3.8
1/2
6%
25.5
1/X
8%
12.8
X/1
15%
5.96
X/2
8%
5.71
X/X
7%
5.03
2/1 EV+ ✗
6%
26.5
2/2
22%
3.57
2/X
8%
12.7
Value flag · 2/1 at 26.5 — our 6% vs market 1.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
37%
+3.6pp
23%
Draw
26%
-3.0pp
36%
Away Win
37%
-0.6pp
44%
Under 2.5
45%
-1.1pp
56%
Over 2.5
55%
+1.1pp
58%
BTTS Yes
58%
-0.2pp
42%
BTTS No
42%
+0.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nagoya Grampus EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Cerezo Osaka EU Bookmakers 40%
+5% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -10%
1.24/1.08 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.26/1.42
+2% / +24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / -3%
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
374 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 371 · 80%
17.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.7
16.1 Crosses 18.3
1.6 Yellow Cards 0.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Nagoya Grampus
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Cerezo Osaka
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.33 xG 1.06
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
302 Passes 384
77% Pass Accuracy 82%
21 Box Touches 29
24 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
08.03.2025 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 1-1 HT 1-0 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus JAP
30.06.2024 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 2-1 HT 1-0 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus JAP
21.04.2024 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus 2-1 HT 0-0 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JAP
26.08.2023 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 3-1 HT 1-1 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus JAP
03.06.2023 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus 3-1 HT 3-1 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JAP
05.11.2022 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 0-1 HT 0-0 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nagoya Grampus
2-1
AWAY Cerezo Osaka
1.90 xG 1.17
35% Ball Possession 65%
15 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 3
246 Passes 538
76% Pass Accuracy 86%
31 Box Touches 11
19 Crosses 11
POST-MATCH Nagoya Grampus vs Cerezo Osaka
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Nagoya Grampus edged past Cerezo Osaka 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 23% / 36% — and on the day Nagoya Grampus made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (56%), both teams to score (58%) came in.

On the day, Nagoya Grampus had 35% of the ball to Cerezo Osaka's 65%, shots finished 15-10, expected goals 1.90 to 1.17.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Nagoya Grampus had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Nagoya Grampus and 1.33 for Cerezo Osaka.

What was the final score of Nagoya Grampus vs Cerezo Osaka?

Nagoya Grampus 2-1 Cerezo Osaka in the Japan - J1 League on 04/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nagoya Grampus vs Cerezo Osaka?

Before kick-off our model rated a Nagoya Grampus win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Nagoya Grampus 40%, draw 23%, Cerezo Osaka 36%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Nagoya Grampus), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Nagoya Grampus) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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