Shimizu S-Pulse 1-1 FC Tokyo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 4 Oct 2025

Shimizu S-Pulse
1-1 HT 1-0
FC Tokyo
📅04/10/2025 · 🕒07:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Japan - J1 League – 2025

Shimizu S-Pulse vs FC Tokyo Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.67
Draw
26%
3.18
Away
41%
2.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.78
Over 2.5
52%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.76
No
45%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2.95
2-3 Goals
40%
1.75
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
23%
3.74
6+ Goals
11%
16.25
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.74 — our 23% vs market 20.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
4.23
1/2 EV+ ✗
10%
28.5
1/X
6%
13.35
X/1
12%
6.01
X/2
15%
5.34
X/X
13%
4.41
2/1
7%
31.5
2/2
17%
3.53
2/X
7%
13.15
Value flag · 1/2 at 28.5 — our 10% vs market 1.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
34%
-1.3pp
26%
Draw
28%
-2.0pp
41%
Away Win
38%
+3.3pp
48%
Under 2.5
52%
-4.7pp
52%
Over 2.5
48%
+4.7pp
55%
BTTS Yes
53%
+2.1pp
45%
BTTS No
47%
-2.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Shimizu S-Pulse v FC Tokyo — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Shimizu S-Pulse EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY FC Tokyo EU Bookmakers 42%
-4% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -7%
1.40/1.37 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.20/0.99
+0% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -22% / +12%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
314 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 352 · 78%
20.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.8
17.0 Crosses 16.1
1.2 Yellow Cards 1.6

Shimizu S-Pulse vs FC Tokyo Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Shimizu S-Pulse
3W-0D-3L
AWAY FC Tokyo
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.03 xG 1.10
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
342 Passes 410
81% Pass Accuracy 82%
18 Box Touches 22
16 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 0
The Meetings
29.04.2025 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo 0-2 HT 0-1 Shimizu S-Pulse Shimizu S-Pulse JAP
07.08.2022 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo 0-2 HT 0-0 Shimizu S-Pulse Shimizu S-Pulse JAP
25.05.2022 Shimizu S-Pulse Shimizu S-Pulse 0-3 HT 0-1 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo JAP
03.11.2021 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo 4-0 HT 3-0 Shimizu S-Pulse Shimizu S-Pulse JAP
26.05.2021 Shimizu S-Pulse Shimizu S-Pulse 3-0 HT 2-0 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo JAP
14.10.2020 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo 3-1 HT 1-0 Shimizu S-Pulse Shimizu S-Pulse JAP

Shimizu S-Pulse 1-1 FC Tokyo — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Shimizu S-Pulse
1-1
AWAY FC Tokyo
0.94 xG 1.08
64% Ball Possession 36%
10 Total Shots 15
1 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 6
536 Passes 259
85% Pass Accuracy 73%
29 Box Touches 21
17 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Shimizu S-Pulse vs FC Tokyo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Shimizu S-Pulse and FC Tokyo couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was FC Tokyo at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged both teams to score (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Shimizu S-Pulse had 64% of the ball to FC Tokyo's 36%, shots finished 10-15, expected goals 0.94 to 1.08.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Shimizu S-Pulse and 1.67 for FC Tokyo.

What was the final score of Shimizu S-Pulse vs FC Tokyo?

Shimizu S-Pulse 1-1 FC Tokyo in the Japan - J1 League on 04/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Shimizu S-Pulse vs FC Tokyo?

Before kick-off our model rated an FC Tokyo win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Shimizu S-Pulse 33%, draw 26%, FC Tokyo 41%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (FC Tokyo), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (FC Tokyo) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
JAP More Japan - J1 League
4 Oct 2025
07:30 Nagoya Grampus vs Cerezo Osaka Analysis →
08:00 Albirex Niigata vs Fagiano Okayama Analysis →
10:00 Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Machida Zelvia Analysis →
10:30 Avispa Fukuoka vs Yokohama FC Analysis →
11:00 Urawa Red Diamonds vs Vissel Kobe Analysis →
11:30 Kashiwa Reysol vs Yokohama F. Marinos Analysis →