Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2-1 Machida Zelvia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 4 Oct 2025

📅04/10/2025 · 🕒10:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.09
Draw
24%
3.18
Away
31%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.64
Over 2.5
48%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.9
No
51%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2.55
2-3 Goals
38%
1.75
4-5 Goals
22%
4.36
6+ Goals
9%
22.7
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
3.09
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
7%
13.8
X/1
17%
4.71
X/2
7%
6.72
X/X
11%
4.09
2/1
9%
29.0
2/2
18%
5.33
2/X
6%
14.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
44%
+1.2pp
24%
Draw
28%
-3.8pp
31%
Away Win
28%
+2.6pp
52%
Under 2.5
57%
-5.6pp
48%
Over 2.5
43%
+5.6pp
49%
BTTS Yes
49%
+0.4pp
51%
BTTS No
51%
-0.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sanfrecce Hiroshima EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Machida Zelvia EU Bookmakers 32%
+0% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +12% / +6%
1.55/0.85 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.44/0.97
-6% / +26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / +10%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
299 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 314 · 75%
27.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.5
24.3 Crosses 20.2
1.1 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sanfrecce Hiroshima
3W-0D-0L
AWAY Machida Zelvia
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.47 xG 0.56
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 6
5 Shots on Target 1
4 Corners 3
331 Passes 220
76% Pass Accuracy 66%
22 Box Touches 11
16 Crosses 12
0 Yellow Cards 4
16.02.2025 Machida Zelvia Machida Zelvia 1-2 HT 1-0 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima JAP
28.09.2024 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2-0 HT 2-0 Machida Zelvia Machida Zelvia JAP
03.04.2024 Machida Zelvia Machida Zelvia 1-2 HT 0-1 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sanfrecce Hiroshima
2-1
AWAY Machida Zelvia
1.49 xG 0.75
69% Ball Possession 31%
15 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
11 Corners 1
373 Passes 136
76% Pass Accuracy 59%
27 Box Touches 13
34 Crosses 1
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Machida Zelvia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sanfrecce Hiroshima nicked a narrow win over Machida Zelvia 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Sanfrecce Hiroshima as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Sanfrecce Hiroshima had 69% of the ball to Machida Zelvia's 31%, shots finished 15-8, expected goals 1.49 to 0.75.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Sanfrecce Hiroshima had the better of it with 3 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Sanfrecce Hiroshima and 0.67 for Machida Zelvia.

What was the final score of Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Machida Zelvia?

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2-1 Machida Zelvia in the Japan - J1 League on 04/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Machida Zelvia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sanfrecce Hiroshima win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Sanfrecce Hiroshima 45%, draw 24%, Machida Zelvia 31%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sanfrecce Hiroshima) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Sanfrecce Hiroshima) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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