Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2-0 Machida Zelvia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 28 Sep 2024

Sanfrecce Hiroshima
2-0 HT 2-0
Machida Zelvia
📅28/09/2024 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Japan - J1 League – 2024

Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Machida Zelvia Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.86
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
29%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.78
Over 2.5
43%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.82
No
55%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
3.04
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
3.84
6+ Goals
9%
16.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.04 — our 31% vs market 27.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.51
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
6%
13.7
X/1
16%
4.21
X/2
12%
8.18
X/X
13%
4.46
2/1
6%
25.5
2/2
10%
6.41
2/X
8%
14.45
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
50%
-6.2pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.0pp
29%
Away Win
24%
+5.2pp
57%
Under 2.5
52%
+4.8pp
43%
Over 2.5
48%
-4.8pp
45%
BTTS Yes
51%
-5.6pp
55%
BTTS No
49%
+5.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Sanfrecce Hiroshima v Machida Zelvia — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sanfrecce Hiroshima EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Machida Zelvia EU Bookmakers 27%
-10% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +45% / +45%
1.30/0.85 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/1.03
-29% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / +150%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
384 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 374 · 78%
26.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.2
23.7 Crosses 17.5
1.0 Yellow Cards 2.0

Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Machida Zelvia Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Machida Zelvia
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.50 xG 0.43
60% Ball Possession 40%
15 Total Shots 5
4 Shots on Target 0
4 Corners 2
324 Passes 180
72% Pass Accuracy 60%
23 Box Touches 8
19 Crosses 10
0 Yellow Cards 4
The Meetings
03.04.2024 Machida Zelvia Machida Zelvia 1-2 HT 0-1 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima JAP

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2-0 Machida Zelvia — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sanfrecce Hiroshima
2-0
AWAY Machida Zelvia
1.44 xG 0.69
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 2
1 Corners 3
338 Passes 259
79% Pass Accuracy 72%
22 Box Touches 14
13 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Machida Zelvia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sanfrecce Hiroshima beat Machida Zelvia 2-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Sanfrecce Hiroshima as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (55%) came in.

On the day, Sanfrecce Hiroshima had 54% of the ball to Machida Zelvia's 46%, shots finished 13-7, expected goals 1.44 to 0.69.

What was the final score of Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Machida Zelvia?

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2-0 Machida Zelvia in the Japan - J1 League on 28/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Machida Zelvia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sanfrecce Hiroshima win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Sanfrecce Hiroshima 44%, draw 27%, Machida Zelvia 29%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sanfrecce Hiroshima), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Sanfrecce Hiroshima) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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