Albirex Niigata 1-1 Fagiano Okayama — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 4 Oct 2025

📅04/10/2025 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.47
Draw
28%
2.94
Away
36%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.59
Over 2.5
45%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.95
No
49%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2.42
2-3 Goals
38%
1.75
4-5 Goals
21%
4.65
6+ Goals
9%
26.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
3.93
1/2
9%
35.0
1/X
7%
13.5
X/1
16%
5.45
X/2
10%
5.71
X/X
14%
3.81
2/1
9%
34.0
2/2
16%
4.21
2/X
7%
13.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
36%
-0.1pp
28%
Draw
30%
-2.0pp
35%
Away Win
33%
+2.1pp
55%
Under 2.5
59%
-4.3pp
45%
Over 2.5
41%
+4.3pp
51%
BTTS Yes
47%
+3.9pp
49%
BTTS No
53%
-3.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Albirex Niigata EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Fagiano Okayama EU Bookmakers 37%
-9% / -24% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +4%
1.13/1.04 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.87/1.29
-12% / -17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -18% / +20%
53% Ball Possession 47%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
346 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 287 · 76%
21.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.0
18.6 Crosses 19.0
1.2 Yellow Cards 0.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Albirex Niigata
0W-3D-3L
AWAY Fagiano Okayama
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.91 xG 2.16
63% Ball Possession 37%
10 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
482 Passes 232
84% Pass Accuracy 74%
16 Box Touches 32
13 Crosses 24
1 Yellow Cards 2
18.05.2025 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama 2-1 HT 1-1 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata JAP
23.07.2022 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata 2-3 HT 2-1 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama JAP2
17.04.2022 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama 1-1 HT 1-1 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata JAP2
31.10.2021 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama 1-1 HT 1-0 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata JAP2
13.06.2021 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata 0-1 HT 0-0 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama JAP2
21.10.2020 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata 1-1 HT 0-0 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama JAP2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Albirex Niigata
1-1
AWAY Fagiano Okayama
1.32 xG 1.44
68% Ball Possession 32%
10 Total Shots 5
2 Shots on Target 1
4 Corners 5
408 Passes 138
79% Pass Accuracy 59%
23 Box Touches 10
16 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Albirex Niigata vs Fagiano Okayama
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Albirex Niigata and Fagiano Okayama shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 36% / 28% / 35% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, Albirex Niigata had 68% of the ball to Fagiano Okayama's 32%, shots finished 10-5, expected goals 1.32 to 1.44.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Fagiano Okayama led the recent series with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Albirex Niigata and 1.50 for Fagiano Okayama.

What was the final score of Albirex Niigata vs Fagiano Okayama?

Albirex Niigata 1-1 Fagiano Okayama in the Japan - J1 League on 04/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Albirex Niigata vs Fagiano Okayama?

Before kick-off our model rated a Albirex Niigata win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Albirex Niigata 36%, draw 28%, Fagiano Okayama 35%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Albirex Niigata) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Albirex Niigata) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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