Necaxa vs Mazatlan Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Necaxa v Mazatlan — Team-Based Signals
Necaxa vs Mazatlan Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
4-0
HT 2-0
Mazatlan
MEK
0-1
HT 0-1
Necaxa
MEK
Necaxa 2-1 Mazatlan — Actual Match Statistics
Necaxa nicked a narrow win over Mazatlan 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
Just as the model leaned, our model had Necaxa as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (57%), both teams to score (59%) came in.
On the day, Necaxa had 60% of the ball to Mazatlan's 40%, shots finished 20-8, expected goals 2.38 to 0.39 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Necaxa's control.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Necaxa had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Necaxa and 0.67 for Mazatlan.
What was the final score of Necaxa vs Mazatlan?
Necaxa 2-1 Mazatlan in the Mexico - Primera on 04/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Necaxa vs Mazatlan?
Before kick-off our model rated a Necaxa win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Necaxa 55%, draw 24%, Mazatlan 21%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Necaxa), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.