Tijuana 1-0 Tigres UANL — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 4 Apr 2026

📅04/04/2026 · 🕒06:06 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
22%
3.75
Draw
28%
3.45
Away
50%
1.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.9
Over 2.5
46%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.76
No
48%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
31%
3.16
2-3 Goals
42%
1.73
4-5 Goals
17%
3.33
6+ Goals
10%
12.8
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.16 — our 31% vs market 24.5%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
6%
1/2
11%
1/X
7%
X/1
10%
X/2
19%
X/X
15%
2/1
6%
2/2
21%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
22%
Home Win
23%
-1.4pp
28%
Draw
25%
+2.7pp
50%
Away Win
52%
-1.2pp
54%
Under 2.5
49%
+5.2pp
46%
Over 2.5
51%
-5.2pp
52%
BTTS Yes
53%
-0.7pp
48%
BTTS No
47%
+0.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tijuana EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Tigres UANL EU Bookmakers 56%
+9% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / -3%
1.17/1.14 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.52/1.03
+21% / +17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -9% / +13%
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
283 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 346 · 80%
17.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.7
15.0 Crosses 19.8
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tijuana
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Tigres UANL
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
0.75 xG 2.61
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 19
3 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 6
311 Passes 358
81% Pass Accuracy 84%
13 Box Touches 34
11 Crosses 19
4 Yellow Cards 2
30.11.2025 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL 5-0 HT 3-0 Tijuana Tijuana MEK
27.11.2025 Tijuana Tijuana 3-0 HT 1-0 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL MEK
26.10.2025 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL 2-0 HT 0-0 Tijuana Tijuana MEK
29.01.2025 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL 4-0 HT 1-0 Tijuana Tijuana MEK
02.11.2024 Tijuana Tijuana 0-3 HT 0-1 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL MEK
28.04.2024 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL 4-1 HT 1-0 Tijuana Tijuana MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Tijuana
1-0
AWAY Tigres UANL
0.40 xG 1.31
41% Ball Possession 59%
6 Total Shots 13
1 Shots on Target 6
1 Corners 7
251 Passes 406
75% Pass Accuracy 84%
11 Box Touches 23
10 Crosses 20
6 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Tijuana vs Tigres UANL
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tijuana squeezed past Tigres UANL 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was Tigres UANL at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Tijuana had 41% of the ball to Tigres UANL's 59%, shots finished 6-13, expected goals 0.40 to 1.31 — the balance of chances actually favoured Tigres UANL.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Tigres UANL led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Tijuana and 3.00 for Tigres UANL.

What was the final score of Tijuana vs Tigres UANL?

Tijuana 1-0 Tigres UANL in the Mexico - Primera on 04/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tijuana vs Tigres UANL?

Before kick-off our model rated an Tigres UANL win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Tijuana 22%, draw 28%, Tigres UANL 50%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Tigres UANL), BTTS Yes went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Tigres UANL) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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