Tigres UANL 5-0 Tijuana — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 30 Nov 2025

📅30/11/2025 · 🕒06:10 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
70%
1.37
Draw
15%
4.62
Away
15%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
37%
2.29
Over 2.5
63%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.85
No
47%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
4.48
2-3 Goals
41%
1.88
4-5 Goals
27%
2.76
6+ Goals
13%
7.51
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
41%
1.61
1/2
4%
35.0
1/X
4%
18.9
X/1
17%
3.93
X/2
5%
16.25
X/X
6%
7.45
2/1 EV+ ✗
12%
21.2
2/2
6%
13.45
2/X
5%
21.8
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.2 — our 12% vs market 2.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
70%
Home Win
69%
+1.8pp
15%
Draw
19%
-3.7pp
15%
Away Win
13%
+1.8pp
37%
Under 2.5
40%
-2.6pp
63%
Over 2.5
60%
+2.6pp
53%
BTTS Yes
50%
+3.1pp
47%
BTTS No
50%
-3.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tigres UANL EU Bookmakers 73%
Head to Head
AWAY Tijuana EU Bookmakers 16%
-3% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / +9%
1.82/0.83 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.90/2.17
-3% / +24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -19% / -11%
58% Ball Possession 42%
20 Total Shots 11
8 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 4
402 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 285 · 78%
29.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.9
23.5 Crosses 13.3
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tigres UANL
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Tijuana
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.75 xG 0.96
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
389 Passes 306
84% Pass Accuracy 80%
28 Box Touches 14
18 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 2
27.11.2025 Tijuana Tijuana 3-0 HT 1-0 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL MEK
26.10.2025 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL 2-0 HT 0-0 Tijuana Tijuana MEK
29.01.2025 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL 4-0 HT 1-0 Tijuana Tijuana MEK
02.11.2024 Tijuana Tijuana 0-3 HT 0-1 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL MEK
28.04.2024 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL 4-1 HT 1-0 Tijuana Tijuana MEK
02.11.2023 Tijuana Tijuana 2-0 HT 2-0 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Tigres UANL
5-0
AWAY Tijuana
4.25 xG 0.21
53% Ball Possession 47%
26 Total Shots 6
14 Shots on Target 1
8 Corners 2
309 Passes 262
83% Pass Accuracy 78%
42 Box Touches 9
27 Crosses 15
4 Yellow Cards 7
POST-MATCH Tigres UANL vs Tijuana
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tigres UANL ran out comfortable winners over Tijuana 5-0. Half-time: 3-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Tigres UANL as the likeliest winner at 70%, and the 5-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (63%) came in.

On the day, Tigres UANL had 53% of the ball to Tijuana's 47%, shots finished 26-6, expected goals 4.25 to 0.21.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Tigres UANL had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Tigres UANL and 1.00 for Tijuana.

What was the final score of Tigres UANL vs Tijuana?

Tigres UANL 5-0 Tijuana in the Mexico - Primera on 30/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tigres UANL vs Tijuana?

Before kick-off our model rated a Tigres UANL win the most likely single outcome at about 70%, with the full match-result split Tigres UANL 70%, draw 15%, Tijuana 15%. The final score 5-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Tigres UANL), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Tigres UANL) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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