Swansea City 0-1 Millwall — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Championship, 4 May 2024

📅04/05/2024 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.96
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
31%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.91
Over 2.5
45%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.7
No
56%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
31%
3.52
2-3 Goals
39%
1.8
4-5 Goals
21%
3.4
6+ Goals
9%
12.65
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.52 — our 31% vs market 23.1%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.78
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
11%
13.05
X/1
12%
4.58
X/2
12%
7.25
X/X
7%
4.54
2/1
9%
25.5
2/2
15%
5.33
2/X
7%
13.45
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
47%
-2.9pp
25%
Draw
26%
-1.7pp
31%
Away Win
26%
+4.6pp
55%
Under 2.5
48%
+6.3pp
45%
Over 2.5
52%
-6.3pp
44%
BTTS Yes
55%
-10.7pp
56%
BTTS No
45%
+10.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Swansea City EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Millwall EU Bookmakers 30%
+0% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +4%
1.46/0.95 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.92/1.23
+6% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / +24%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
378 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 296 · 74%
22.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.6
18.6 Crosses 17.2
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Swansea City
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Millwall
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.33 xG 1.11
62% Ball Possession 38%
13 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 6
507 Passes 264
84% Pass Accuracy 74%
19 Box Touches 27
14 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 2
30.09.2023 Millwall Millwall 0-3 HT 0-1 Swansea City Swansea City İNCL
14.03.2023 Millwall Millwall 2-1 HT 0-0 Swansea City Swansea City İNCL
16.08.2022 Swansea City Swansea City 2-2 HT 2-0 Millwall Millwall İNCL
05.04.2022 Millwall Millwall 0-1 HT 0-0 Swansea City Swansea City İNCL
15.09.2021 Swansea City Swansea City 0-0 HT 0-0 Millwall Millwall İNCL
10.04.2021 Millwall Millwall 0-3 HT 0-1 Swansea City Swansea City İNCL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Swansea City
0-1
AWAY Millwall
1.45 xG 0.80
68% Ball Possession 32%
9 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
524 Passes 211
89% Pass Accuracy 75%
22 Box Touches 15
27 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Swansea City vs Millwall
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Millwall nicked a narrow win over Swansea City 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Swansea City at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (55%), no to both teams scoring (56%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Swansea City had 68% of the ball to Millwall's 32%, shots finished 9-12, expected goals 1.45 to 0.80 — on chances, Swansea City could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Swansea City had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Swansea City and 0.67 for Millwall.

What was the final score of Swansea City vs Millwall?

Swansea City 0-1 Millwall in the England - Championship on 04/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Swansea City vs Millwall?

Before kick-off our model rated a Swansea City win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Swansea City 44%, draw 25%, Millwall 31%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Swansea City) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Swansea City) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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