Arezzo 3-1 Gubbio — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 4 May 2025

📅04/05/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.86
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
25%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.54
Over 2.5
46%
2.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
2.16
No
54%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2.23
2-3 Goals
40%
1.75
4-5 Goals
21%
5.04
6+ Goals
8%
31.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
14%
X/2
13%
X/X
14%
2/1
6%
2/2
6%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
50%
-1.1pp
26%
Draw
27%
-0.8pp
25%
Away Win
23%
+1.9pp
54%
Under 2.5
61%
-6.7pp
46%
Over 2.5
39%
+6.7pp
46%
BTTS Yes
42%
+4.4pp
54%
BTTS No
58%
-4.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Arezzo EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Gubbio EU Bookmakers 26%
+4% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +4%
1.62/0.68 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.99/1.25
+14% / +37% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / -1%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
318 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 266 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Arezzo
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Gubbio
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 2
02.02.2025 Gubbio Gubbio 0-0 HT 0-0 Arezzo Arezzo İTC
24.09.2024 Arezzo Arezzo 2-0 HT 1-0 Gubbio Gubbio İTC
05.03.2024 Gubbio Gubbio 2-0 HT 1-0 Arezzo Arezzo İTC
30.10.2023 Arezzo Arezzo 1-0 HT 0-0 Gubbio Gubbio İTC
03.02.2021 Arezzo Arezzo 0-1 HT 0-0 Gubbio Gubbio İTC
08.10.2020 Gubbio Gubbio 1-1 HT 0-0 Arezzo Arezzo İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Arezzo
3-1
AWAY Gubbio
48% Ball Possession 52%
19 Total Shots 15
8 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Arezzo vs Gubbio
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Arezzo got the better of Gubbio 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Arezzo as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Arezzo had 48% of the ball to Gubbio's 52%, shots finished 19-15.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Arezzo and 0.67 for Gubbio.

What was the final score of Arezzo vs Gubbio?

Arezzo 3-1 Gubbio in the Italy - Serie C on 04/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Arezzo vs Gubbio?

Before kick-off our model rated a Arezzo win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Arezzo 49%, draw 26%, Gubbio 25%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Arezzo) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Arezzo) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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