Gençlerbirliği 1-0 Sakaryaspor — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - 1st Division, 4 May 2025

📅04/05/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
63%
1.33
Draw
20%
4.62
Away
17%
7.18
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.1
Over 2.5
48%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
2.03
No
60%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
26%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
36%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
16%
X/2
5%
X/X
7%
2/1
11%
2/2
6%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
63%
Home Win
71%
-7.5pp
20%
Draw
18%
+1.5pp
17%
Away Win
11%
+6.1pp
52%
Under 2.5
44%
+8.1pp
48%
Over 2.5
56%
-8.1pp
40%
BTTS Yes
45%
-5.2pp
60%
BTTS No
55%
+5.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gençlerbirliği EU Bookmakers 75%
Head to Head
AWAY Sakaryaspor EU Bookmakers 14%
-9% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -10% / -11%
2.00/0.66 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.69/1.94
-42% / +36% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / -16%
58% Ball Possession 42%
14 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 2
381 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 250 · 73%
30.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.2
23.7 Crosses 14.5
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gençlerbirliği
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Sakaryaspor
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.11 xG 0.66
42% Ball Possession 58%
10 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
234 Passes 348
70% Pass Accuracy 76%
14 Box Touches 20
13 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 1
06.01.2025 Sakaryaspor Sakaryaspor 0-0 HT 0-0 Gençlerbirliği Gençlerbirliği T1L
21.01.2024 Gençlerbirliği Gençlerbirliği 3-1 HT 0-0 Sakaryaspor Sakaryaspor T1L
20.08.2023 Sakaryaspor Sakaryaspor 0-0 HT 0-0 Gençlerbirliği Gençlerbirliği T1L
16.05.2023 Gençlerbirliği Gençlerbirliği 2-1 HT 0-1 Sakaryaspor Sakaryaspor T1L
17.12.2022 Sakaryaspor Sakaryaspor 2-1 HT 1-1 Gençlerbirliği Gençlerbirliği T1L
19.05.2007 Gençlerbirliği Gençlerbirliği 1-0 HT 0-0 Sakaryaspor Sakaryaspor TSL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gençlerbirliği
1-0
AWAY Sakaryaspor
2.12 xG 0.33
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 2
6 Shots on Target 1
8 Corners 3
257 Passes 310
81% Pass Accuracy 79%
21 Box Touches 5
19 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Gençlerbirliği vs Sakaryaspor
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gençlerbirliği nicked a narrow win over Sakaryaspor 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Gençlerbirliği as the likeliest winner at 63%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — no to both teams scoring (60%) came in.

On the day, Gençlerbirliği had 46% of the ball to Sakaryaspor's 54%, shots finished 12-2, expected goals 2.12 to 0.33 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Gençlerbirliği's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Gençlerbirliği had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Gençlerbirliği and 0.67 for Sakaryaspor.

What was the final score of Gençlerbirliği vs Sakaryaspor?

Gençlerbirliği 1-0 Sakaryaspor in the Turkey - 1st Division on 04/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gençlerbirliği vs Sakaryaspor?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gençlerbirliği win the most likely single outcome at about 63%, with the full match-result split Gençlerbirliği 63%, draw 20%, Sakaryaspor 17%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Gençlerbirliği), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Gençlerbirliği) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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