Torreense vs Penafiel Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Torreense v Penafiel — Team-Based Signals
Torreense vs Penafiel Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
5-1
HT 2-0
Penafiel
POR2
Torreense 3-2 Penafiel — Actual Match Statistics
Torreense squeezed past Penafiel 3-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Torreense as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Torreense had 49% of the ball to Penafiel's 51%, shots finished 10-20, expected goals 1.02 to 3.04 — on chances, Penafiel could feel hard done by.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Torreense had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Torreense and 0.67 for Penafiel.
What was the final score of Torreense vs Penafiel?
Torreense 3-2 Penafiel in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 04/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Torreense vs Penafiel?
Before kick-off our model rated a Torreense win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Torreense 48%, draw 24%, Penafiel 27%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Torreense) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.