Torreense 3-2 Penafiel — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 4 May 2026

📅04/05/2026 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.86
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
27%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.74
Over 2.5
46%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.85
No
55%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
2.79
2-3 Goals
38%
1.7
4-5 Goals
21%
3.71
6+ Goals
8%
16.55
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.79 — our 33% vs market 28.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
12%
X/2
14%
X/X
11%
2/1
9%
2/2
6%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
50%
-1.8pp
24%
Draw
26%
-2.0pp
27%
Away Win
24%
+3.8pp
54%
Under 2.5
54%
+0.2pp
46%
Over 2.5
46%
-0.2pp
45%
BTTS Yes
50%
-4.9pp
55%
BTTS No
50%
+4.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Torreense EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Penafiel EU Bookmakers 27%
-9% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -5%
1.54/1.07 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.23/1.36
-22% / +16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / -3%
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
287 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 245 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
19.5 Crosses 16.5
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Torreense
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Penafiel
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.87 xG 1.31
52% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 6
334 Passes 286
81% Pass Accuracy 79%
22 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
21.12.2025 Penafiel Penafiel 1-0 HT 0-0 Torreense Torreense POR2
05.05.2025 Penafiel Penafiel 0-1 HT 0-1 Torreense Torreense POR2
22.12.2024 Torreense Torreense 0-1 HT 0-0 Penafiel Penafiel POR2
16.05.2024 Penafiel Penafiel 1-1 HT 0-1 Torreense Torreense POR2
15.01.2024 Torreense Torreense 1-0 HT 1-0 Penafiel Penafiel POR2
21.05.2023 Torreense Torreense 5-1 HT 2-0 Penafiel Penafiel POR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Torreense
3-2
AWAY Penafiel
1.02 xG 3.04
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 20
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
239 Passes 250
74% Pass Accuracy 79%
10 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Torreense vs Penafiel
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Torreense squeezed past Penafiel 3-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Torreense as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Torreense had 49% of the ball to Penafiel's 51%, shots finished 10-20, expected goals 1.02 to 3.04 — on chances, Penafiel could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Torreense had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Torreense and 0.67 for Penafiel.

What was the final score of Torreense vs Penafiel?

Torreense 3-2 Penafiel in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 04/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Torreense vs Penafiel?

Before kick-off our model rated a Torreense win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Torreense 48%, draw 24%, Penafiel 27%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Torreense) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Torreense) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
POR2 More Portugal - 2nd Division
4 May 2026
20:00 Porto II vs Felgueiras 1932 Analysis →