Penafiel 1-0 Torreense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 21 Dec 2025

📅21/12/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
2.67
Draw
26%
3.11
Away
44%
2.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.74
Over 2.5
47%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.81
No
49%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
31%
2.81
2-3 Goals
40%
1.74
4-5 Goals
21%
3.84
6+ Goals
8%
17.45
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.81 — our 31% vs market 28.7%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
8%
X/2
18%
X/X
12%
2/1
6%
2/2
20%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
34%
-3.9pp
27%
Draw
28%
-1.9pp
44%
Away Win
38%
+5.9pp
53%
Under 2.5
54%
-0.2pp
47%
Over 2.5
46%
+0.2pp
51%
BTTS Yes
51%
-0.6pp
49%
BTTS No
49%
+0.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Penafiel EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Torreense EU Bookmakers 42%
-5% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +20% / +20%
1.21/1.42 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.11/1.13
-17% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / +31%
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
271 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 302 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
19.7 Crosses 18.2
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Penafiel
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Torreense
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.36 xG 1.99
47% Ball Possession 53%
13 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
305 Passes 352
78% Pass Accuracy 80%
21 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
05.05.2025 Penafiel Penafiel 0-1 HT 0-1 Torreense Torreense POR2
22.12.2024 Torreense Torreense 0-1 HT 0-0 Penafiel Penafiel POR2
16.05.2024 Penafiel Penafiel 1-1 HT 0-1 Torreense Torreense POR2
15.01.2024 Torreense Torreense 1-0 HT 1-0 Penafiel Penafiel POR2
21.05.2023 Torreense Torreense 5-1 HT 2-0 Penafiel Penafiel POR2
14.01.2023 Penafiel Penafiel 0-0 HT 0-0 Torreense Torreense POR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Penafiel
1-0
AWAY Torreense
0.98 xG 0.39
66% Ball Possession 34%
17 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 1
9 Corners 6
335 Passes 164
88% Pass Accuracy 73%
33 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Penafiel vs Torreense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Penafiel nicked a narrow win over Torreense 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Torreense at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Penafiel had 66% of the ball to Torreense's 34%, shots finished 17-8, expected goals 0.98 to 0.39.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Torreense led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Penafiel and 1.33 for Torreense.

What was the final score of Penafiel vs Torreense?

Penafiel 1-0 Torreense in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 21/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Penafiel vs Torreense?

Before kick-off our model rated an Torreense win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Penafiel 30%, draw 27%, Torreense 44%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Torreense), BTTS Yes went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Torreense) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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