Real Salt Lake 3-2 Houston Dynamo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 4 Jul 2024

📅04/07/2024 · 🕒04:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.75
Draw
21%
3.72
Away
23%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.21
Over 2.5
54%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.6
No
52%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
21%
X/2
8%
X/X
7%
2/1
10%
2/2
10%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
53%
+2.4pp
21%
Draw
24%
-2.4pp
23%
Away Win
24%
-0.2pp
46%
Under 2.5
41%
+4.5pp
54%
Over 2.5
59%
-4.5pp
48%
BTTS Yes
58%
-10.0pp
52%
BTTS No
42%
+10.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Real Salt Lake EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Houston Dynamo EU Bookmakers 27%
+0% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / +7%
1.55/1.11 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.14/1.61
+7% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / +2%
53% Ball Possession 47%
16 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
379 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 326 · 79%
24.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.1
20.1 Crosses 14.2
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Real Salt Lake
0W-3D-3L
AWAY Houston Dynamo
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.61 xG 1.63
42% Ball Possession 58%
11 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 4
292 Passes 464
80% Pass Accuracy 84%
14 Box Touches 27
20 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 2
12.11.2023 Houston Dynamo Houston Dynamo 1-1 HT 1-0 Real Salt Lake Real Salt Lake ABD
07.11.2023 Real Salt Lake Real Salt Lake 1-1 HT 0-1 Houston Dynamo Houston Dynamo ABD
30.10.2023 Houston Dynamo Houston Dynamo 2-1 HT 1-0 Real Salt Lake Real Salt Lake ABD
27.08.2023 Real Salt Lake Real Salt Lake 0-3 HT 0-2 Houston Dynamo Houston Dynamo ABD
24.08.2023 Houston Dynamo Houston Dynamo 3-1 HT 1-0 Real Salt Lake Real Salt Lake ABDK
07.05.2023 Houston Dynamo Houston Dynamo 0-0 HT 0-0 Real Salt Lake Real Salt Lake ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Real Salt Lake
3-2
AWAY Houston Dynamo
3.59 xG 0.90
45% Ball Possession 55%
17 Total Shots 9
8 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 2
299 Passes 373
80% Pass Accuracy 80%
26 Box Touches 22
17 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Real Salt Lake vs Houston Dynamo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Real Salt Lake edged past Houston Dynamo 3-2. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Real Salt Lake as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Real Salt Lake had 45% of the ball to Houston Dynamo's 55%, shots finished 17-9, expected goals 3.59 to 0.90 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Real Salt Lake's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Houston Dynamo led the recent series with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Real Salt Lake and 1.67 for Houston Dynamo.

What was the final score of Real Salt Lake vs Houston Dynamo?

Real Salt Lake 3-2 Houston Dynamo in the USA - Major League on 04/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Real Salt Lake vs Houston Dynamo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Real Salt Lake win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Real Salt Lake 55%, draw 21%, Houston Dynamo 23%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Real Salt Lake), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Real Salt Lake) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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