Zalgiris Vilnius 1-0 Banga Gargzdai — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Lithuania - 1st Division, 4 Jul 2025

📅04/07/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.49
Draw
27%
4.19
Away
21%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.21
Over 2.5
48%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.73
No
55%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
23%
X/2
10%
X/X
15%
2/1
5%
2/2
6%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
63%
-10.7pp
27%
Draw
21%
+6.1pp
21%
Away Win
16%
+4.6pp
52%
Under 2.5
41%
+11.1pp
48%
Over 2.5
59%
-11.1pp
45%
BTTS Yes
54%
-8.7pp
55%
BTTS No
46%
+8.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Zalgiris Vilnius EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Banga Gargzdai EU Bookmakers 20%
-10% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +24% / +22%
1.83/0.95 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.84/1.06
+16% / -41% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / +32%
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
326 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 294 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
0.8 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Zalgiris Vilnius
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Banga Gargzdai
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
62% Ball Possession 38%
14 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 2
03.05.2025 Banga Gargzdai Banga Gargzdai 2-0 HT 1-0 Zalgiris Vilnius Zalgiris Vilnius LITA
15.03.2025 Zalgiris Vilnius Zalgiris Vilnius 1-1 HT 0-0 Banga Gargzdai Banga Gargzdai LITA
22.02.2025 Banga Gargzdai Banga Gargzdai 2-2 HT 0-2 Zalgiris Vilnius Zalgiris Vilnius LITSK
01.09.2024 Zalgiris Vilnius Zalgiris Vilnius 2-1 HT 0-0 Banga Gargzdai Banga Gargzdai LITA
26.06.2024 Banga Gargzdai Banga Gargzdai 0-2 HT 0-0 Zalgiris Vilnius Zalgiris Vilnius LIT1
01.05.2024 Zalgiris Vilnius Zalgiris Vilnius 2-2 HT 1-0 Banga Gargzdai Banga Gargzdai LIT1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Zalgiris Vilnius
1-0
AWAY Banga Gargzdai
47% Ball Possession 53%
13 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 7
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Zalgiris Vilnius vs Banga Gargzdai
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Zalgiris Vilnius nicked a narrow win over Banga Gargzdai 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Zalgiris Vilnius as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged no to both teams scoring (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Zalgiris Vilnius had 47% of the ball to Banga Gargzdai's 53%, shots finished 13-12.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Zalgiris Vilnius had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Zalgiris Vilnius and 1.33 for Banga Gargzdai.

What was the final score of Zalgiris Vilnius vs Banga Gargzdai?

Zalgiris Vilnius 1-0 Banga Gargzdai in the Lithuania - 1st Division on 04/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Zalgiris Vilnius vs Banga Gargzdai?

Before kick-off our model rated a Zalgiris Vilnius win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Zalgiris Vilnius 52%, draw 27%, Banga Gargzdai 21%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Zalgiris Vilnius), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Zalgiris Vilnius) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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