Zalgiris Vilnius 1-1 Banga Gargzdai — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Lithuania - 1st Division, 15 Mar 2025

📅15/03/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
58%
1.42
Draw
23%
4.34
Away
19%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.03
Over 2.5
47%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.99
No
55%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
34%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
16%
X/2
5%
X/X
9%
2/1
8%
2/2
9%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
58%
Home Win
67%
-8.4pp
23%
Draw
20%
+2.5pp
19%
Away Win
13%
+5.9pp
53%
Under 2.5
45%
+7.2pp
47%
Over 2.5
55%
-7.2pp
45%
BTTS Yes
46%
-1.3pp
55%
BTTS No
54%
+1.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Zalgiris Vilnius EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Banga Gargzdai EU Bookmakers 16%
-5% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
2.10/1.12 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.55/1.83
+80% / -43% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -24% / +5%
57% Ball Possession 43%
15 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
420 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 257 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
0.7 Yellow Cards 3.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Zalgiris Vilnius
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Banga Gargzdai
2.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
62% Ball Possession 38%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 2
22.02.2025 Banga Gargzdai Banga Gargzdai 2-2 HT 0-2 Zalgiris Vilnius Zalgiris Vilnius LITSK
01.09.2024 Zalgiris Vilnius Zalgiris Vilnius 2-1 HT 0-0 Banga Gargzdai Banga Gargzdai LITA
26.06.2024 Banga Gargzdai Banga Gargzdai 0-2 HT 0-0 Zalgiris Vilnius Zalgiris Vilnius LIT1
01.05.2024 Zalgiris Vilnius Zalgiris Vilnius 2-2 HT 1-0 Banga Gargzdai Banga Gargzdai LIT1
13.03.2024 Banga Gargzdai Banga Gargzdai 1-4 HT 1-2 Zalgiris Vilnius Zalgiris Vilnius LIT1
24.01.2024 Zalgiris Vilnius Zalgiris Vilnius 5-0 Banga Gargzdai Banga Gargzdai HAZ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Zalgiris Vilnius
1-1
AWAY Banga Gargzdai
61% Ball Possession 39%
15 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 2
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Zalgiris Vilnius vs Banga Gargzdai
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Zalgiris Vilnius and Banga Gargzdai shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Zalgiris Vilnius at 58% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Zalgiris Vilnius had 61% of the ball to Banga Gargzdai's 39%, shots finished 15-7.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Zalgiris Vilnius had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.83 goals for Zalgiris Vilnius and 1.00 for Banga Gargzdai.

What was the final score of Zalgiris Vilnius vs Banga Gargzdai?

Zalgiris Vilnius 1-1 Banga Gargzdai in the Lithuania - 1st Division on 15/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Zalgiris Vilnius vs Banga Gargzdai?

Before kick-off our model rated a Zalgiris Vilnius win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Zalgiris Vilnius 58%, draw 23%, Banga Gargzdai 19%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Zalgiris Vilnius), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Zalgiris Vilnius) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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