BFC Daugavpils 3-1 Liepaja — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Latvia - Virsliga, 4 Jul 2026

📅04/07/2026 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
2.84
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
43%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.03
Over 2.5
50%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.6
No
44%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
13%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
11%
X/2
7%
X/X
12%
2/1
7%
2/2
29%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
32%
-1.1pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.3pp
43%
Away Win
42%
+0.7pp
50%
Under 2.5
45%
+4.2pp
50%
Over 2.5
55%
-4.2pp
56%
BTTS Yes
58%
-2.3pp
44%
BTTS No
42%
+2.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME BFC Daugavpils EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Liepaja EU Bookmakers 46%
+22% / +26% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -4%
1.44/1.24 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.68/1.24
+39% / +29% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +39% / -23%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
304 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 312 · 78%
25.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 31.5
17.3 Crosses 22.1
2.9 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME BFC Daugavpils
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Liepaja
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.24 xG 1.24
40% Ball Possession 60%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 6
210 Passes 376
73% Pass Accuracy 83%
21 Box Touches 28
14 Crosses 23
3 Yellow Cards 3
17.05.2026 Liepaja Liepaja 2-1 HT 1-0 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils LET
03.04.2026 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 2-0 HT 1-0 Liepaja Liepaja LET
02.11.2025 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 1-2 HT 0-0 Liepaja Liepaja LET
09.08.2025 Liepaja Liepaja 2-1 HT 0-0 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils LET
13.06.2025 Liepaja Liepaja 1-1 HT 1-0 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils LET
19.04.2025 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 4-2 HT 1-0 Liepaja Liepaja LET
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME BFC Daugavpils
3-1
AWAY Liepaja
1.85 xG 1.57
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 15
8 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 6
289 Passes 357
20 Box Touches 20
8 Crosses 22
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH BFC Daugavpils vs Liepaja
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

BFC Daugavpils beat Liepaja 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was Liepaja at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (56%) came in.

On the day, BFC Daugavpils had 50% of the ball to Liepaja's 50%, shots finished 14-15, expected goals 1.85 to 1.57.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Liepaja led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for BFC Daugavpils and 1.50 for Liepaja.

What was the final score of BFC Daugavpils vs Liepaja?

BFC Daugavpils 3-1 Liepaja in the Latvia - Virsliga on 04/07/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for BFC Daugavpils vs Liepaja?

Before kick-off our model rated an Liepaja win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split BFC Daugavpils 30%, draw 27%, Liepaja 43%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Liepaja) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Liepaja) ✓ BTTS Yes
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