Liepaja 2-1 BFC Daugavpils — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Latvia - Virsliga, 9 Aug 2025

📅09/08/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.61
Draw
24%
3.8
Away
22%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.0
Over 2.5
52%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.76
No
43%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
21%
X/2
8%
X/X
9%
2/1
11%
2/2
6%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
58%
-3.4pp
24%
Draw
23%
+1.0pp
22%
Away Win
19%
+2.4pp
48%
Under 2.5
46%
+1.5pp
52%
Over 2.5
54%
-1.5pp
57%
BTTS Yes
53%
+4.3pp
43%
BTTS No
47%
-4.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Liepaja EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY BFC Daugavpils EU Bookmakers 22%
-12% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -2%
1.46/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.85/1.31
+3% / -17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -23% / +11%
59% Ball Possession 41%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
356 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 218 · 68%
28.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.1
22.8 Crosses 14.1
2.2 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Liepaja
1W-4D-1L
AWAY BFC Daugavpils
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.67 xG 1.09
62% Ball Possession 38%
17 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 2
419 Passes 170
83% Pass Accuracy 68%
38 Box Touches 16
31 Crosses 11
3 Yellow Cards 3
13.06.2025 Liepaja Liepaja 1-1 HT 1-0 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils LET
19.04.2025 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 4-2 HT 1-0 Liepaja Liepaja LET
09.11.2024 Liepaja Liepaja 3-3 HT 2-2 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils LET
24.08.2024 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 0-2 HT 0-1 Liepaja Liepaja LET
15.06.2024 Liepaja Liepaja 1-1 HT 0-1 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils LET
28.04.2024 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 0-0 HT 0-0 Liepaja Liepaja LET
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Liepaja
2-1
AWAY BFC Daugavpils
1.23 xG 1.02
54% Ball Possession 46%
11 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 5
340 Passes 282
83% Pass Accuracy 79%
30 Box Touches 20
25 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Liepaja vs BFC Daugavpils
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Liepaja squeezed past BFC Daugavpils 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Liepaja as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged both teams to score (57%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Liepaja had 54% of the ball to BFC Daugavpils's 46%, shots finished 11-9, expected goals 1.23 to 1.02.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Liepaja and 1.50 for BFC Daugavpils.

What was the final score of Liepaja vs BFC Daugavpils?

Liepaja 2-1 BFC Daugavpils in the Latvia - Virsliga on 09/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Liepaja vs BFC Daugavpils?

Before kick-off our model rated a Liepaja win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Liepaja 54%, draw 24%, BFC Daugavpils 22%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Liepaja), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Liepaja) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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