Liepaja 2-1 BFC Daugavpils — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Latvia - Virsliga, 17 May 2026

📅17/05/2026 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.96
Draw
20%
3.45
Away
29%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.18
Over 2.5
52%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.55
No
49%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
16%
X/2
9%
X/X
9%
2/1
8%
2/2
14%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
47%
+4.8pp
20%
Draw
25%
-5.3pp
29%
Away Win
28%
+0.5pp
48%
Under 2.5
42%
+6.2pp
52%
Over 2.5
58%
-6.2pp
51%
BTTS Yes
60%
-9.9pp
49%
BTTS No
40%
+9.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Liepaja EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY BFC Daugavpils EU Bookmakers 32%
-6% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -27% / -20%
1.84/2.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.81/1.48
-5% / -25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -51% / -10%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
354 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 335 · 78%
20.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.4
16.4 Crosses 20.1
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Liepaja
2W-2D-2L
AWAY BFC Daugavpils
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.53 xG 1.25
64% Ball Possession 36%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
410 Passes 201
84% Pass Accuracy 72%
33 Box Touches 20
24 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 3
03.04.2026 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 2-0 HT 1-0 Liepaja Liepaja LET
02.11.2025 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 1-2 HT 0-0 Liepaja Liepaja LET
09.08.2025 Liepaja Liepaja 2-1 HT 0-0 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils LET
13.06.2025 Liepaja Liepaja 1-1 HT 1-0 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils LET
19.04.2025 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 4-2 HT 1-0 Liepaja Liepaja LET
09.11.2024 Liepaja Liepaja 3-3 HT 2-2 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils LET
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Liepaja
2-1
AWAY BFC Daugavpils
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 4
POST-MATCH Liepaja vs BFC Daugavpils
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Liepaja nicked a narrow win over BFC Daugavpils 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Liepaja as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Liepaja had 52% of the ball to BFC Daugavpils's 48%, shots finished 11-9.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Liepaja and 2.00 for BFC Daugavpils.

What was the final score of Liepaja vs BFC Daugavpils?

Liepaja 2-1 BFC Daugavpils in the Latvia - Virsliga on 17/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Liepaja vs BFC Daugavpils?

Before kick-off our model rated a Liepaja win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Liepaja 51%, draw 20%, BFC Daugavpils 29%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Liepaja), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Liepaja) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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