BFC Daugavpils 2-0 Liepaja — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Latvia - Virsliga, 3 Apr 2026

📅03/04/2026 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 1-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
21%
4.13
Draw
18%
3.8
Away
61%
1.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.15
Over 2.5
57%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.7
No
44%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
26%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
1/2
9%
1/X
5%
X/1
7%
X/2
23%
X/X
8%
2/1
4%
2/2
29%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
21%
Home Win
21%
+0.7pp
18%
Draw
23%
-5.0pp
61%
Away Win
56%
+4.3pp
42%
Under 2.5
43%
-0.3pp
57%
Over 2.5
57%
+0.3pp
56%
BTTS Yes
55%
+1.3pp
44%
BTTS No
45%
-1.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME BFC Daugavpils EU Bookmakers 24%
Head to Head
AWAY Liepaja EU Bookmakers 61%
-8% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -11%
1.03/1.44 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.80/1.42
-2% / -28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +22% / -28%
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
260 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 355 · 78%
21.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 31.7
16.8 Crosses 25.2
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME BFC Daugavpils
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Liepaja
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.24 xG 1.43
38% Ball Possession 62%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 5
209 Passes 397
72% Pass Accuracy 84%
19 Box Touches 34
15 Crosses 25
4 Yellow Cards 3
02.11.2025 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 1-2 HT 0-0 Liepaja Liepaja LET
09.08.2025 Liepaja Liepaja 2-1 HT 0-0 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils LET
13.06.2025 Liepaja Liepaja 1-1 HT 1-0 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils LET
19.04.2025 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 4-2 HT 1-0 Liepaja Liepaja LET
09.11.2024 Liepaja Liepaja 3-3 HT 2-2 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils LET
24.08.2024 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 0-2 HT 0-1 Liepaja Liepaja LET
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME BFC Daugavpils
2-0
AWAY Liepaja
1.29 xG 2.00
28% Ball Possession 72%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 4
162 Passes 470
72% Pass Accuracy 86%
24 Box Touches 31
8 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH BFC Daugavpils vs Liepaja
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

BFC Daugavpils beat Liepaja 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

This one beat our numbers. Liepaja carried 61% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (57%), both teams to score (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, BFC Daugavpils had 28% of the ball to Liepaja's 72%, shots finished 16-10, expected goals 1.29 to 2.00 — on chances, Liepaja could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Liepaja led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for BFC Daugavpils and 2.00 for Liepaja.

What was the final score of BFC Daugavpils vs Liepaja?

BFC Daugavpils 2-0 Liepaja in the Latvia - Virsliga on 03/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for BFC Daugavpils vs Liepaja?

Before kick-off our model rated an Liepaja win the most likely single outcome at about 61%, with the full match-result split BFC Daugavpils 21%, draw 18%, Liepaja 61%. The final score 2-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Liepaja) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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