NK Varazdin 1-1 HNK Gorica — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 1. HNL, 4 Aug 2025

📅04/08/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.75
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
24%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.64
Over 2.5
46%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
2.06
No
48%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
23%
X/2
7%
X/X
12%
2/1
10%
2/2
10%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
53%
-1.6pp
25%
Draw
26%
-0.9pp
23%
Away Win
21%
+2.6pp
54%
Under 2.5
57%
-3.7pp
46%
Over 2.5
43%
+3.7pp
52%
BTTS Yes
44%
+7.6pp
48%
BTTS No
56%
-7.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME NK Varazdin EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY HNK Gorica EU Bookmakers 24%
+14% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +5%
1.30/0.78 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.88/1.47
+0% / +32% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -9% / +8%
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
315 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 280 · 75%
17.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.1
17.4 Crosses 14.2
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME NK Varazdin
1W-4D-1L
AWAY HNK Gorica
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.24 xG 0.63
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 6
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
366 Passes 316
82% Pass Accuracy 78%
25 Box Touches 12
19 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 2
04.04.2025 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin 0-0 HT 0-0 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica HIR
25.01.2025 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica 1-1 HT 1-1 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin HIR
14.11.2024 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin 1-1 HT 1-0 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica HIRK
20.10.2024 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin 2-1 HT 1-0 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica HIR
03.08.2024 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica 0-0 HT 0-0 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin HIR
30.03.2024 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin 2-4 HT 1-2 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica HIR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME NK Varazdin
1-1
AWAY HNK Gorica
2.61 xG 1.28
64% Ball Possession 36%
17 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 7
472 Passes 222
87% Pass Accuracy 77%
28 Box Touches 14
24 Crosses 19
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH NK Varazdin vs HNK Gorica
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

NK Varazdin and HNK Gorica shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was NK Varazdin at 51%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, NK Varazdin had 64% of the ball to HNK Gorica's 36%, shots finished 17-13, expected goals 2.61 to 1.28.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for NK Varazdin and 1.17 for HNK Gorica.

What was the final score of NK Varazdin vs HNK Gorica?

NK Varazdin 1-1 HNK Gorica in the Croatia - 1. HNL on 04/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for NK Varazdin vs HNK Gorica?

Before kick-off our model rated a NK Varazdin win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split NK Varazdin 51%, draw 25%, HNK Gorica 23%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (NK Varazdin) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (NK Varazdin) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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