Hollanda 1-1 Polonya — Result, Statistics & Match Review — World Cup Qualifiers, 4 Sep 2025

📅04/09/2025 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 4-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
72%
1.3
Draw
16%
4.81
Away
12%
7.18
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.33
Over 2.5
56%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.95
No
53%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
4.53
2-3 Goals
36%
1.87
4-5 Goals
27%
2.73
6+ Goals
13%
7.37
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
38%
1.49
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
4%
20.05
X/1 EV+ ✗
27%
3.78
X/2
5%
18.1
X/X
7%
7.65
2/1
7%
21.35
2/2
3%
15.45
2/X
5%
23.65
Value flag · X/1 at 3.78 — our 27% vs market 20.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
72%
Home Win
72%
-0.1pp
16%
Draw
17%
-1.3pp
12%
Away Win
11%
+1.4pp
44%
Under 2.5
39%
+4.6pp
56%
Over 2.5
61%
-4.6pp
47%
BTTS Yes
47%
-0.6pp
53%
BTTS No
53%
+0.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hollanda EU Bookmakers 77%
Head to Head
AWAY Polonya EU Bookmakers 14%
+10% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -16% / -16%
4.38/0.33 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.55/1.35
+131% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +65% / +14%
62% Ball Possession 38%
15 Total Shots 6
6 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 3
519 · 87% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 260 · 75%
64.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.0
24.7 Crosses 7.0
1.2 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hollanda
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Polonya
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
2.07 xG 0.87
60% Ball Possession 40%
16 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 3
525 Passes 290
88% Pass Accuracy 78%
34 Box Touches 13
22 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 3
16.06.2024 Polonya Polonya 1-2 HT 1-1 Hollanda Hollanda AVR
22.09.2022 Polonya Polonya 0-2 HT 0-1 Hollanda Hollanda AVUL
11.06.2022 Hollanda Hollanda 2-2 HT 0-1 Polonya Polonya AVUL
18.11.2020 Polonya Polonya 1-2 HT 1-0 Hollanda Hollanda AVUL
04.09.2020 Hollanda Hollanda 1-0 HT 0-0 Polonya Polonya AVUL
01.06.2016 Polonya Polonya 1-2 HT 0-1 Hollanda Hollanda HAZ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hollanda
1-1
AWAY Polonya
1.24 xG 0.31
74% Ball Possession 26%
14 Total Shots 6
5 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 4
670 Passes 187
94% Pass Accuracy 76%
36 Box Touches 14
20 Crosses 15
POST-MATCH Hollanda vs Polonya
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hollanda and Polonya couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Hollanda at 72% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Hollanda had 74% of the ball to Polonya's 26%, shots finished 14-6, expected goals 1.24 to 0.31.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Hollanda had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Hollanda and 0.83 for Polonya.

What was the final score of Hollanda vs Polonya?

Hollanda 1-1 Polonya in the World Cup Qualifiers on 04/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hollanda vs Polonya?

Before kick-off our model rated a Hollanda win the most likely single outcome at about 72%, with the full match-result split Hollanda 72%, draw 16%, Polonya 12%. The final score 1-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Hollanda) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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