Hearts 1-0 Hibernian — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Scotland - Premiership, 4 Oct 2025

📅04/10/2025 · 🕒19:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.82
Draw
24%
3.54
Away
23%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.95
Over 2.5
52%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.73
No
45%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.59
2-3 Goals
39%
1.84
4-5 Goals
25%
3.44
6+ Goals
10%
12.65
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.44
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
9%
13.5
X/1
21%
4.48
X/2
6%
8.34
X/X
7%
5.06
2/1 EV+ ✗
11%
23.1
2/2
12%
6.36
2/X
8%
14.65
Value flag · 2/1 at 23.1 — our 11% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
51%
+1.3pp
24%
Draw
25%
-0.8pp
23%
Away Win
24%
-0.6pp
48%
Under 2.5
48%
+0.4pp
52%
Over 2.5
52%
-0.4pp
55%
BTTS Yes
54%
+1.2pp
45%
BTTS No
46%
-1.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hearts EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Hibernian EU Bookmakers 27%
+2% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +10%
1.56/1.14 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.29/1.23
+21% / +24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +13% / +8%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
334 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 233 · 72%
28.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.0
25.4 Crosses 18.6
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hearts
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Hibernian
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.14 xG 1.69
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
324 Passes 222
75% Pass Accuracy 69%
27 Box Touches 25
23 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 1
02.03.2025 Hibernian Hibernian 2-1 HT 1-1 Hearts Hearts İKP
26.12.2024 Hearts Hearts 1-2 HT 1-1 Hibernian Hibernian İKP
27.10.2024 Hibernian Hibernian 1-1 HT 0-0 Hearts Hearts İKP
28.02.2024 Hearts Hearts 1-1 HT 1-1 Hibernian Hibernian İKP
27.12.2023 Hibernian Hibernian 0-1 HT 0-0 Hearts Hearts İKP
07.10.2023 Hearts Hearts 2-2 HT 1-0 Hibernian Hibernian İKP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hearts
1-0
AWAY Hibernian
0.80 xG 0.39
62% Ball Possession 38%
11 Total Shots 5
3 Shots on Target 1
4 Corners 2
402 Passes 196
83% Pass Accuracy 66%
23 Box Touches 7
26 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Hearts vs Hibernian
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hearts edged past Hibernian 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Hearts as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — both teams to score (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Hearts had 62% of the ball to Hibernian's 38%, shots finished 11-5, expected goals 0.80 to 0.39.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Hibernian led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Hearts and 1.33 for Hibernian.

What was the final score of Hearts vs Hibernian?

Hearts 1-0 Hibernian in the Scotland - Premiership on 04/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hearts vs Hibernian?

Before kick-off our model rated a Hearts win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Hearts 52%, draw 24%, Hibernian 23%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Hearts) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Hearts) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İKP More Scotland - Premiership
4 Oct 2025
17:00 Kilmarnock vs St. Mirren Analysis →
17:00 Dundee United vs Livingston Analysis →