Kilmarnock 2-0 St. Mirren — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Scotland - Premiership, 4 Oct 2025

📅04/10/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.53
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
33%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.78
Over 2.5
49%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.76
No
47%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
3.05
2-3 Goals
41%
1.81
4-5 Goals
18%
3.94
6+ Goals
10%
17.45
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
4.0
1/2
10%
29.0
1/X
10%
13.3
X/1
11%
5.78
X/2
13%
5.51
X/X
12%
4.4
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
30.5
2/2
11%
3.73
2/X
5%
13.2
Value flag · 2/1 at 30.5 — our 9% vs market 1.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
36%
+3.7pp
27%
Draw
28%
-1.0pp
33%
Away Win
36%
-2.8pp
51%
Under 2.5
52%
-1.6pp
49%
Over 2.5
48%
+1.6pp
53%
BTTS Yes
53%
+0.0pp
47%
BTTS No
47%
-0.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kilmarnock EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY St. Mirren EU Bookmakers 40%
+1% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -3%
1.54/0.97 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.34/1.11
+1% / +46% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / +4%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
288 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 278 · 70%
25.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.4
23.3 Crosses 25.6
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kilmarnock
3W-2D-1L
AWAY St. Mirren
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.61 xG 1.00
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
213 Passes 228
68% Pass Accuracy 69%
22 Box Touches 20
21 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 1
19.09.2025 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock 2-2 HT 1-1 St. Mirren St. Mirren İKLK
29.03.2025 St. Mirren St. Mirren 5-1 HT 2-0 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock İKP
02.01.2025 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock 2-0 HT 1-0 St. Mirren St. Mirren İKP
14.09.2024 St. Mirren St. Mirren 2-2 HT 2-1 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock İKP
11.05.2024 St. Mirren St. Mirren 0-1 HT 0-1 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock İKP
16.03.2024 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock 5-2 HT 0-2 St. Mirren St. Mirren İKP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Kilmarnock
2-0
AWAY St. Mirren
1.96 xG 0.43
36% Ball Possession 64%
9 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 0
4 Corners 9
150 Passes 303
63% Pass Accuracy 72%
15 Box Touches 20
16 Crosses 26
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Kilmarnock vs St. Mirren
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kilmarnock saw off St. Mirren 2-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 27% / 33% — and on the day Kilmarnock made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Kilmarnock had 36% of the ball to St. Mirren's 64%, shots finished 9-7, expected goals 1.96 to 0.43.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Kilmarnock had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Kilmarnock and 1.83 for St. Mirren.

What was the final score of Kilmarnock vs St. Mirren?

Kilmarnock 2-0 St. Mirren in the Scotland - Premiership on 04/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kilmarnock vs St. Mirren?

Before kick-off our model rated a Kilmarnock win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Kilmarnock 40%, draw 27%, St. Mirren 33%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Kilmarnock), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Kilmarnock) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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