Chelsea 2-1 Liverpool — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 4 Oct 2025

📅04/10/2025 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
2.67
Draw
24%
3.45
Away
46%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.23
Over 2.5
55%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
59%
1.5
No
41%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.47
2-3 Goals
43%
1.89
4-5 Goals
22%
2.8
6+ Goals
12%
7.8
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
4.1
1/2
8%
23.1
1/X
10%
12.4
X/1
12%
6.62
X/2
17%
5.6
X/X
7%
5.4
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
26.5
2/2
21%
3.17
2/X
7%
12.15
Value flag · 2/1 at 26.5 — our 8% vs market 1.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
34%
-4.0pp
24%
Draw
26%
-1.3pp
46%
Away Win
41%
+5.4pp
45%
Under 2.5
41%
+4.1pp
55%
Over 2.5
59%
-4.1pp
59%
BTTS Yes
62%
-3.5pp
41%
BTTS No
38%
+3.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Chelsea EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Liverpool EU Bookmakers 45%
+6% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +10%
1.62/1.54 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.38/1.38
+1% / +39% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +34% / -1%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
364 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 369 · 80%
27.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.0
14.9 Crosses 11.3
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Chelsea
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Liverpool
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.75 xG 1.55
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
463 Passes 450
85% Pass Accuracy 84%
29 Box Touches 32
15 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 3
04.05.2025 Chelsea Chelsea 3-1 HT 1-0 Liverpool Liverpool İNP
20.10.2024 Liverpool Liverpool 2-1 HT 1-0 Chelsea Chelsea İNP
25.02.2024 Chelsea Chelsea 0-1 HT 0-0 Liverpool Liverpool İNLK
31.01.2024 Liverpool Liverpool 4-1 HT 2-0 Chelsea Chelsea İNP
13.08.2023 Chelsea Chelsea 1-1 HT 1-1 Liverpool Liverpool İNP
04.04.2023 Chelsea Chelsea 0-0 HT 0-0 Liverpool Liverpool İNP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Chelsea
2-1
AWAY Liverpool
1.00 xG 1.95
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 2
422 Passes 370
83% Pass Accuracy 82%
22 Box Touches 25
20 Crosses 11
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Chelsea vs Liverpool
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Chelsea nicked a narrow win over Liverpool 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was Liverpool at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (55%), both teams to score (59%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Chelsea had 53% of the ball to Liverpool's 47%, shots finished 12-12, expected goals 1.00 to 1.95 — on chances, Liverpool could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Liverpool led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Chelsea and 1.50 for Liverpool.

What was the final score of Chelsea vs Liverpool?

Chelsea 2-1 Liverpool in the England - Premier League on 04/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Chelsea vs Liverpool?

Before kick-off our model rated an Liverpool win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Chelsea 30%, draw 24%, Liverpool 46%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Liverpool) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Liverpool) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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İNP More England - Premier League
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