Augsburg 3-1 Wolfsburg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 4 Oct 2025

Augsburg
3-1 HT 1-0
Wolfsburg
📅04/10/2025 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Germany - Bundesliga – 2025/2026

Augsburg vs Wolfsburg Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.38
Draw
23%
3.35
Away
38%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.1
Over 2.5
54%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.56
No
44%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
4.0
2-3 Goals
39%
1.84
4-5 Goals
25%
2.98
6+ Goals
12%
9.25
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
3.54
1/2
6%
26.0
1/X
8%
12.2
X/1
12%
5.86
X/2
14%
6.13
X/X
11%
5.08
2/1 EV+ ✗
11%
25.5
2/2
17%
3.79
2/X
5%
12.25
Value flag · 2/1 at 25.5 — our 11% vs market 1.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
38%
+1.1pp
23%
Draw
26%
-3.2pp
38%
Away Win
36%
+2.1pp
46%
Under 2.5
44%
+1.8pp
54%
Over 2.5
56%
-1.8pp
56%
BTTS Yes
60%
-3.8pp
44%
BTTS No
40%
+3.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Augsburg v Wolfsburg — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Augsburg EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Wolfsburg EU Bookmakers 39%
+4% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +29%
1.40/1.20 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.47/1.31
-7% / +17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / +18%
47% Ball Possession 53%
14 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
318 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 359 · 79%
24.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.3
20.9 Crosses 17.3
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.5

Augsburg vs Wolfsburg Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Augsburg
3W-3D-0L
AWAY Wolfsburg
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.99 xG 1.72
40% Ball Possession 60%
10 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
241 Passes 419
73% Pass Accuracy 82%
18 Box Touches 25
17 Crosses 24
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
15.03.2025 Augsburg Augsburg 1-0 HT 0-0 Wolfsburg Wolfsburg AL1
02.11.2024 Wolfsburg Wolfsburg 1-1 HT 0-1 Augsburg Augsburg AL1
16.03.2024 Wolfsburg Wolfsburg 1-3 HT 1-1 Augsburg Augsburg AL1
28.10.2023 Augsburg Augsburg 3-2 HT 1-2 Wolfsburg Wolfsburg AL1
01.04.2023 Wolfsburg Wolfsburg 2-2 HT 0-2 Augsburg Augsburg AL1
08.10.2022 Augsburg Augsburg 1-1 HT 0-1 Wolfsburg Wolfsburg AL1

Augsburg 3-1 Wolfsburg — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Augsburg
3-1
AWAY Wolfsburg
1.86 xG 1.19
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 4
10 Corners 5
286 Passes 354
77% Pass Accuracy 82%
19 Box Touches 27
21 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Augsburg vs Wolfsburg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Augsburg saw off Wolfsburg 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match split (39% / 23% / 38%) promised a tight game; Augsburg found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged both teams to score (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Augsburg had 47% of the ball to Wolfsburg's 53%, shots finished 10-14, expected goals 1.86 to 1.19.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Augsburg had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Augsburg and 1.17 for Wolfsburg.

What was the final score of Augsburg vs Wolfsburg?

Augsburg 3-1 Wolfsburg in the Germany - Bundesliga on 04/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Augsburg vs Wolfsburg?

Before kick-off our model rated a Augsburg win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Augsburg 39%, draw 23%, Wolfsburg 38%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Augsburg), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Augsburg) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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