Werder Bremen 1-0 St. Pauli — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 4 Oct 2025

📅04/10/2025 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.19
Draw
24%
3.35
Away
35%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.15
Over 2.5
55%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.55
No
45%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
4.08
2-3 Goals
40%
1.85
4-5 Goals
25%
2.94
6+ Goals
11%
8.94
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
3.18
1/2
5%
28.0
1/X
7%
12.0
X/1
15%
5.55
X/2
8%
6.66
X/X
8%
5.1
2/1 EV+ ✗
7%
24.0
2/2
22%
4.24
2/X
9%
12.3
Value flag · 2/1 at 24.0 — our 7% vs market 2.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
42%
-0.4pp
24%
Draw
26%
-2.8pp
35%
Away Win
32%
+3.1pp
45%
Under 2.5
43%
+2.3pp
55%
Over 2.5
57%
-2.3pp
55%
BTTS Yes
60%
-5.0pp
45%
BTTS No
40%
+5.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Werder Bremen EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY St. Pauli EU Bookmakers 36%
-3% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +20% / +20%
1.67/1.47 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.36/0.83
+11% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / +150%
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
339 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 347 · 78%
24.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.1
18.9 Crosses 14.9
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Werder Bremen
2W-3D-1L
AWAY St. Pauli
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.65 xG 1.09
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 3
332 Passes 375
76% Pass Accuracy 78%
25 Box Touches 22
16 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
27.04.2025 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 0-0 HT 0-0 St. Pauli St. Pauli AL1
14.12.2024 St. Pauli St. Pauli 0-2 HT 0-1 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen AL1
09.04.2022 St. Pauli St. Pauli 1-1 HT 1-0 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen AL2
30.10.2021 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 1-1 HT 0-0 St. Pauli St. Pauli AL2
22.07.2017 St. Pauli St. Pauli 2-1 HT 1-0 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen HAZ
23.04.2011 St. Pauli St. Pauli 1-3 HT 1-0 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen AL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Werder Bremen
1-0
AWAY St. Pauli
1.86 xG 0.75
41% Ball Possession 59%
15 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 0
359 Passes 539
78% Pass Accuracy 83%
21 Box Touches 13
5 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Werder Bremen vs St. Pauli
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Werder Bremen squeezed past St. Pauli 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Werder Bremen as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (55%), both teams to score (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Werder Bremen had 41% of the ball to St. Pauli's 59%, shots finished 15-13, expected goals 1.86 to 0.75.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Werder Bremen had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Werder Bremen and 0.83 for St. Pauli.

What was the final score of Werder Bremen vs St. Pauli?

Werder Bremen 1-0 St. Pauli in the Germany - Bundesliga on 04/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Werder Bremen vs St. Pauli?

Before kick-off our model rated a Werder Bremen win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Werder Bremen 41%, draw 24%, St. Pauli 35%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Werder Bremen) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Werder Bremen) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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