Borussia Dortmund 1-1 RB Leipzig — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 4 Oct 2025

📅04/10/2025 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
60%
1.72
Draw
21%
4.08
Away
19%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
3.14
Over 2.5
57%
1.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.38
No
42%
2.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
7.42
2-3 Goals
41%
2.26
4-5 Goals
25%
2.36
6+ Goals
13%
4.21
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
2.12
1/2
7%
30.5
1/X
4%
13.3
X/1
20%
4.87
X/2
7%
9.6
X/X
6%
7.48
2/1 EV+ ✗
11%
17.3
2/2
6%
5.94
2/X
10%
14.25
Value flag · 2/1 at 17.3 — our 11% vs market 3.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
60%
Home Win
54%
+6.1pp
21%
Draw
21%
-0.8pp
19%
Away Win
24%
-5.3pp
43%
Under 2.5
28%
+14.7pp
57%
Over 2.5
72%
-14.7pp
58%
BTTS Yes
68%
-10.5pp
42%
BTTS No
32%
+10.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Borussia Dortmund EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY RB Leipzig EU Bookmakers 28%
+6% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -6%
2.02/1.08 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.31/1.62
+48% / +20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -17% / +7%
52% Ball Possession 48%
16 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
392 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 354 · 80%
29.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.3
19.2 Crosses 11.2
1.4 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Borussia Dortmund
2W-0D-4L
AWAY RB Leipzig
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.64 xG 2.13
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 18
5 Shots on Target 7
6 Corners 5
446 Passes 359
84% Pass Accuracy 80%
28 Box Touches 35
20 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 3
15.03.2025 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 2-0 HT 1-0 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund AL1
02.11.2024 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 2-1 HT 1-1 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig AL1
27.04.2024 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 4-1 HT 2-1 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund AL1
09.12.2023 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 2-3 HT 1-1 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig AL1
05.04.2023 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 2-0 HT 1-0 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund AFK
03.03.2023 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 2-1 HT 2-0 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig AL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Borussia Dortmund
1-1
AWAY RB Leipzig
0.89 xG 1.12
50% Ball Possession 50%
15 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 7
417 Passes 422
85% Pass Accuracy 85%
27 Box Touches 25
22 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Borussia Dortmund vs RB Leipzig
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Borussia Dortmund and RB Leipzig couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1.

This one beat our numbers. Borussia Dortmund carried 60% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. On goals, both teams to score (58%) landed while over 2.5 goals (57%) missed.

On the day, Borussia Dortmund had 50% of the ball to RB Leipzig's 50%, shots finished 15-13, expected goals 0.89 to 1.12.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, RB Leipzig led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Borussia Dortmund and 2.17 for RB Leipzig.

What was the final score of Borussia Dortmund vs RB Leipzig?

Borussia Dortmund 1-1 RB Leipzig in the Germany - Bundesliga on 04/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Borussia Dortmund vs RB Leipzig?

Before kick-off our model rated a Borussia Dortmund win the most likely single outcome at about 60%, with the full match-result split Borussia Dortmund 60%, draw 21%, RB Leipzig 19%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Borussia Dortmund), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Borussia Dortmund) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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