Bayer Leverkusen 2-0 Union Berlin — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 4 Oct 2025

📅04/10/2025 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
58%
1.72
Draw
23%
3.64
Away
19%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.95
Over 2.5
52%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.76
No
46%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.44
2-3 Goals
43%
1.79
4-5 Goals
22%
3.29
6+ Goals
11%
12.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
2.22
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
4%
14.35
X/1
19%
4.24
X/2
7%
9.34
X/X
13%
5.29
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
22.7
2/2
7%
7.4
2/X
6%
15.9
Value flag · 2/1 at 22.7 — our 9% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
58%
Home Win
54%
+3.5pp
23%
Draw
24%
-1.4pp
19%
Away Win
21%
-2.0pp
48%
Under 2.5
48%
+0.5pp
52%
Over 2.5
52%
-0.5pp
54%
BTTS Yes
53%
+1.1pp
46%
BTTS No
47%
-1.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bayer Leverkusen EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Union Berlin EU Bookmakers 24%
-15% / -28% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +0%
1.79/1.11 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.11/1.47
-17% / -20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / +7%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
336 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 297 · 74%
30.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.9
21.6 Crosses 16.4
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bayer Leverkusen
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Union Berlin
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.17
1.64 xG 0.45
66% Ball Possession 34%
14 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 4
590 Passes 252
88% Pass Accuracy 75%
22 Box Touches 12
22 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 2
12.04.2025 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 0-0 HT 0-0 Union Berlin Union Berlin AL1
30.11.2024 Union Berlin Union Berlin 1-2 HT 1-1 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen AL1
06.04.2024 Union Berlin Union Berlin 0-1 HT 0-1 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen AL1
12.11.2023 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 4-0 HT 1-0 Union Berlin Union Berlin AL1
29.04.2023 Union Berlin Union Berlin 0-0 HT 0-0 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen AL1
06.11.2022 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 5-0 HT 0-0 Union Berlin Union Berlin AL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bayer Leverkusen
2-0
AWAY Union Berlin
2.87 xG 0.86
74% Ball Possession 26%
20 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
755 Passes 201
92% Pass Accuracy 72%
24 Box Touches 14
12 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Bayer Leverkusen vs Union Berlin
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bayer Leverkusen saw off Union Berlin 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Bayer Leverkusen as the likeliest winner at 58%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Bayer Leverkusen had 74% of the ball to Union Berlin's 26%, shots finished 20-10, expected goals 2.87 to 0.86.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bayer Leverkusen had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Bayer Leverkusen and 0.17 for Union Berlin.

What was the final score of Bayer Leverkusen vs Union Berlin?

Bayer Leverkusen 2-0 Union Berlin in the Germany - Bundesliga on 04/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bayer Leverkusen vs Union Berlin?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bayer Leverkusen win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Bayer Leverkusen 58%, draw 23%, Union Berlin 19%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Bayer Leverkusen) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Bayer Leverkusen) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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