Illertissen 4-1 Buchbach — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Regional League, 4 Oct 2025

📅04/10/2025 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
2.02
Draw
22%
3.64
Away
32%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.23
Over 2.5
55%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.46
No
45%
2.51
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
27%
6+ Goals
13%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
7%
1/X
5%
X/1
17%
X/2
9%
X/X
9%
2/1
9%
2/2
16%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
45%
+1.2pp
22%
Draw
24%
-1.9pp
32%
Away Win
31%
+0.8pp
45%
Under 2.5
41%
+3.9pp
55%
Over 2.5
59%
-3.9pp
55%
BTTS Yes
64%
-9.8pp
46%
BTTS No
36%
+9.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Illertissen EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Buchbach EU Bookmakers 34%
-2% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -2%
1.81/1.45 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.08/1.26
+7% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -21% / +25%
53% Ball Possession 47%
16 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
331 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 305 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.2 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Illertissen
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Buchbach
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
48% Ball Possession 52%
9 Total Shots 7
2 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 2
30.11.2024 Buchbach Buchbach 3-0 HT 3-0 Illertissen Illertissen ALMBÖL
16.08.2024 Illertissen Illertissen 2-0 HT 0-0 Buchbach Buchbach ALMBÖL
17.10.2023 Buchbach Buchbach 2-3 HT 2-1 Illertissen Illertissen ALMBÖL
26.11.2022 Illertissen Illertissen 0-0 HT 0-0 Buchbach Buchbach ALMBÖL
02.08.2022 Buchbach Buchbach 1-1 HT 1-0 Illertissen Illertissen ALMBÖL
13.11.2021 Buchbach Buchbach 0-1 HT 0-0 Illertissen Illertissen ALMBÖL
POST-MATCH Illertissen vs Buchbach
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Illertissen ran out comfortable winners over Buchbach 4-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Illertissen as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (55%), both teams to score (55%), and both reads landed as well.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Illertissen had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Illertissen and 1.00 for Buchbach.

What was the final score of Illertissen vs Buchbach?

Illertissen 4-1 Buchbach in the Germany - Regional League on 04/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Illertissen vs Buchbach?

Before kick-off our model rated a Illertissen win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Illertissen 46%, draw 22%, Buchbach 32%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Illertissen), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Illertissen) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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