Karabağ 1-0 Kapaz — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Azerbaijan - Super League, 4 Oct 2025

📅04/10/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 4-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
78%
1.16
Draw
13%
7.78
Away
9%
10.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
33%
3.17
Over 2.5
67%
1.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.33
No
57%
1.53
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
17%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
27%
6+ Goals
13%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
52%
1/2
4%
1/X
2%
X/1
20%
X/2
2%
X/X
6%
2/1
7%
2/2
3%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
78%
Home Win
82%
-4.2pp
13%
Draw
10%
+2.2pp
9%
Away Win
7%
+2.0pp
33%
Under 2.5
28%
+5.2pp
67%
Over 2.5
72%
-5.2pp
43%
BTTS Yes
39%
+4.7pp
57%
BTTS No
61%
-4.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Karabağ EU Bookmakers 87%
Head to Head
AWAY Kapaz EU Bookmakers 9%
-6% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +4%
2.61/0.60 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.65/2.43
+30% / +21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / -15%
59% Ball Possession 41%
19 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 3
462 · 86% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 318 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.4 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Karabağ
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Kapaz
3.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
15.03.2025 Kapaz Kapaz 0-0 HT 0-0 Karabağ Karabağ AZERS
18.10.2024 Kapaz Kapaz 0-5 HT 0-1 Karabağ Karabağ AZERS
09.08.2024 Karabağ Karabağ 3-0 HT 0-0 Kapaz Kapaz AZERS
29.03.2024 Kapaz Kapaz 1-6 HT 0-1 Karabağ Karabağ AZERS
27.01.2024 Kapaz Kapaz 1-2 HT 0-0 Karabağ Karabağ AZERS
04.11.2023 Karabağ Karabağ 7-1 HT 5-1 Kapaz Kapaz AZERS
POST-MATCH Karabağ vs Kapaz
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Karabağ edged past Kapaz 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Karabağ as the likeliest winner at 78%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. On goals, no to both teams scoring (57%) landed while over 2.5 goals (67%) missed.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Karabağ had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 3.83 goals for Karabağ and 0.50 for Kapaz.

What was the final score of Karabağ vs Kapaz?

Karabağ 1-0 Kapaz in the Azerbaijan - Super League on 04/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Karabağ vs Kapaz?

Before kick-off our model rated a Karabağ win the most likely single outcome at about 78%, with the full match-result split Karabağ 78%, draw 13%, Kapaz 9%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Karabağ), BTTS No — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Karabağ) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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