Naesby 2-0 Holbaek — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Denmark - 3rd Division, 4 Oct 2025

📅04/10/2025 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
2.53
Draw
20%
3.54
Away
53%
2.32
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
40%
2.23
Over 2.5
60%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
67%
1.5
No
33%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
18%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
15%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
8%
1/X
9%
X/1
9%
X/2
15%
X/X
7%
2/1
6%
2/2
30%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
27%
Home Win
36%
-9.1pp
20%
Draw
25%
-4.6pp
53%
Away Win
39%
+13.7pp
40%
Under 2.5
41%
-1.0pp
60%
Over 2.5
59%
+1.0pp
67%
BTTS Yes
62%
+4.1pp
33%
BTTS No
38%
-4.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Naesby EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Holbaek EU Bookmakers 43%
+5% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +14% / +14%
1.79/1.65 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.50/0.55
+19% / -18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / +150%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 4
310 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 391 · 85%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Naesby
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Holbaek
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.83
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 10
9 Shots on Target 6
8 Corners 6
1 Yellow Cards 3
24.05.2025 Holbaek Holbaek 2-2 HT 1-0 Naesby Naesby DAN3
03.05.2025 Naesby Naesby 3-3 Holbaek Holbaek DAN3
15.03.2025 Holbaek Holbaek 4-0 Naesby Naesby DAN3
21.09.2024 Naesby Naesby 2-3 Holbaek Holbaek DAN3
18.05.2024 Naesby Naesby 3-2 HT 1-1 Holbaek Holbaek DAN3
27.04.2024 Holbaek Holbaek 3-2 HT 2-2 Naesby Naesby DAN3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Naesby
2-0
AWAY Holbaek
57% Ball Possession 43%
15 Total Shots 10
9 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 2
5 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Naesby vs Holbaek
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Naesby beat Holbaek 2-0.

Our pre-match lean was Holbaek at 53%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (60%), both teams to score (67%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Naesby had 57% of the ball to Holbaek's 43%, shots finished 15-10.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Holbaek led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Naesby and 2.83 for Holbaek.

What was the final score of Naesby vs Holbaek?

Naesby 2-0 Holbaek in the Denmark - 3rd Division on 04/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Naesby vs Holbaek?

Before kick-off our model rated an Holbaek win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Naesby 27%, draw 20%, Holbaek 53%. The final score 2-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Holbaek) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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