Holbaek 2-2 Naesby — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Denmark - 3rd Division, 24 May 2025

📅24/05/2025 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.96
Draw
22%
3.54
Away
27%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.23
Over 2.5
54%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.55
No
51%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
27%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
5%
1/X
11%
X/1
15%
X/2
9%
X/X
6%
2/1
8%
2/2
13%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
47%
+3.9pp
22%
Draw
25%
-2.3pp
27%
Away Win
28%
-1.6pp
46%
Under 2.5
41%
+4.9pp
54%
Over 2.5
59%
-4.9pp
49%
BTTS Yes
60%
-11.1pp
51%
BTTS No
40%
+11.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Holbaek EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Naesby EU Bookmakers 32%
+14% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +8%
1.45/0.60 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.33/1.76
-19% / +110% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / -8%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
349 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 322 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.8 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Holbaek
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Naesby
3.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 10
5 Corners 9
2 Yellow Cards 2
03.05.2025 Naesby Naesby 3-3 Holbaek Holbaek DAN3
15.03.2025 Holbaek Holbaek 4-0 Naesby Naesby DAN3
21.09.2024 Naesby Naesby 2-3 Holbaek Holbaek DAN3
18.05.2024 Naesby Naesby 3-2 HT 1-1 Holbaek Holbaek DAN3
27.04.2024 Holbaek Holbaek 3-2 HT 2-2 Naesby Naesby DAN3
10.03.2024 Naesby Naesby 0-3 HT 0-0 Holbaek Holbaek DAN3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Holbaek
2-2
AWAY Naesby
42% Ball Possession 58%
11 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 4
POST-MATCH Holbaek vs Naesby
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Holbaek and Naesby couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Holbaek at 51%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Holbaek had 42% of the ball to Naesby's 58%, shots finished 11-14.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Holbaek had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 3.00 goals for Holbaek and 1.67 for Naesby.

What was the final score of Holbaek vs Naesby?

Holbaek 2-2 Naesby in the Denmark - 3rd Division on 24/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Holbaek vs Naesby?

Before kick-off our model rated a Holbaek win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Holbaek 51%, draw 22%, Naesby 27%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Holbaek), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Holbaek) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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