Carrick Rangers 1-2 Ballymena United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — North Ireland - Premier League, 4 Oct 2025

📅04/10/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.12
Draw
32%
3.28
Away
27%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.86
Over 2.5
45%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.73
No
49%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.13
2-3 Goals
38%
1.75
4-5 Goals
23%
3.41
6+ Goals
9%
13.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.13 — our 30% vs market 25.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
3.11
1/2
7%
32.5
1/X
6%
13.0
X/1
13%
5.04
X/2
13%
6.6
X/X
17%
4.68
2/1
6%
25.5
2/2
7%
4.7
2/X
9%
13.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
43%
-2.0pp
32%
Draw
27%
+5.6pp
27%
Away Win
30%
-3.6pp
55%
Under 2.5
50%
+4.9pp
45%
Over 2.5
50%
-4.9pp
51%
BTTS Yes
54%
-2.8pp
49%
BTTS No
46%
+2.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Carrick Rangers EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Ballymena United EU Bookmakers 34%
-5% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +14%
1.09/1.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.34/1.24
-21% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / +4%
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
291 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 316 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.9 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Carrick Rangers
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Ballymena United
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
45% Ball Possession 54%
8 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 4
4 Yellow Cards 2
12.04.2025 Ballymena United Ballymena United 1-1 HT 0-0 Carrick Rangers Carrick Rangers KİRL
18.01.2025 Carrick Rangers Carrick Rangers 0-0 HT 0-0 Ballymena United Ballymena United KİRL
30.11.2024 Ballymena United Ballymena United 1-2 HT 0-0 Carrick Rangers Carrick Rangers KİRL
17.09.2024 Carrick Rangers Carrick Rangers 1-4 HT 0-2 Ballymena United Ballymena United KİRL
13.04.2024 Carrick Rangers Carrick Rangers 2-1 HT 0-0 Ballymena United Ballymena United KİRL
15.12.2023 Ballymena United Ballymena United 0-2 HT 0-1 Carrick Rangers Carrick Rangers KİRL
POST-MATCH Carrick Rangers vs Ballymena United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ballymena United edged past Carrick Rangers 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Carrick Rangers at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Carrick Rangers had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Carrick Rangers and 1.17 for Ballymena United.

What was the final score of Carrick Rangers vs Ballymena United?

Carrick Rangers 1-2 Ballymena United in the North Ireland - Premier League on 04/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Carrick Rangers vs Ballymena United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Carrick Rangers win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Carrick Rangers 41%, draw 32%, Ballymena United 27%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Carrick Rangers), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Carrick Rangers) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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