Portadown FC 3-1 Glenavon FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — North Ireland - Premier League, 4 Oct 2025

📅04/10/2025 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
1.96
Draw
29%
3.45
Away
29%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.82
Over 2.5
45%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.76
No
48%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.03
2-3 Goals
40%
1.74
4-5 Goals
21%
3.51
6+ Goals
9%
14.35
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.03 — our 30% vs market 26.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
2.79
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
6%
13.8
X/1
10%
4.62
X/2
8%
7.13
X/X
15%
4.78
2/1
7%
24.85
2/2
14%
5.41
2/X
8%
14.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
47%
-5.5pp
30%
Draw
26%
+4.0pp
29%
Away Win
27%
+1.5pp
55%
Under 2.5
51%
+3.9pp
45%
Over 2.5
49%
-3.9pp
52%
BTTS Yes
53%
-1.2pp
48%
BTTS No
47%
+1.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Portadown FC EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Glenavon FC EU Bookmakers 31%
+10% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -13%
1.13/0.91 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.06/1.78
-17% / +27% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / -25%
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
388 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 315 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Portadown FC
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Glenavon FC
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 9
2 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 7
4 Yellow Cards 2
01.04.2025 Portadown FC Portadown FC 1-1 HT 1-1 Glenavon FC Glenavon FC KİRL
26.12.2024 Glenavon FC Glenavon FC 2-0 HT 1-0 Portadown FC Portadown FC KİRL
23.11.2024 Portadown FC Portadown FC 1-0 HT 1-0 Glenavon FC Glenavon FC KİRL
05.10.2024 Glenavon FC Glenavon FC 2-1 HT 0-1 Portadown FC Portadown FC KİRL
16.01.2024 Glenavon FC Glenavon FC 0-1 HT 0-1 Portadown FC Portadown FC KILK
29.04.2023 Glenavon FC Glenavon FC 0-0 HT 0-0 Portadown FC Portadown FC KİRL
POST-MATCH Portadown FC vs Glenavon FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Portadown FC beat Glenavon FC 3-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Portadown FC as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Portadown FC and 0.83 for Glenavon FC.

What was the final score of Portadown FC vs Glenavon FC?

Portadown FC 3-1 Glenavon FC in the North Ireland - Premier League on 04/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Portadown FC vs Glenavon FC?

Before kick-off our model rated a Portadown FC win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Portadown FC 42%, draw 30%, Glenavon FC 29%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Portadown FC), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Portadown FC) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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