Forge 1-1 Vancouver FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Kanada - Premier League, 4 Oct 2025

📅04/10/2025 · 🕒23:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 4-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
80%
1.22
Draw
14%
5.28
Away
6%
8.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
34%
2.38
Over 2.5
66%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
2.16
No
52%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
16%
4.73
2-3 Goals
44%
1.9
4-5 Goals
26%
2.65
6+ Goals
14%
6.8
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
56%
1/2
2%
1/X
3%
X/1
16%
X/2
1%
X/X
8%
2/1
8%
2/2
3%
2/X
3%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
80%
Home Win
77%
+3.1pp
14%
Draw
15%
-1.4pp
6%
Away Win
8%
-1.6pp
34%
Under 2.5
38%
-3.8pp
66%
Over 2.5
62%
+3.8pp
48%
BTTS Yes
42%
+5.7pp
52%
BTTS No
58%
-5.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Forge EU Bookmakers 82%
Head to Head
AWAY Vancouver FC EU Bookmakers 11%
-2% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +1%
2.17/0.68 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.01/1.89
-3% / +88% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / +16%
60% Ball Possession 40%
19 Total Shots 7
8 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 3
472 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 249 · 73%
34.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.2
14.6 Crosses 13.0
1.2 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Forge
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Vancouver FC
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.86 xG 1.19
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
371 Passes 314
85% Pass Accuracy 80%
26 Box Touches 22
16 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
23.08.2025 Vancouver FC Vancouver FC 0-1 HT 0-1 Forge Forge KAPL
06.07.2025 Forge Forge 2-1 HT 1-0 Vancouver FC Vancouver FC KAPL
15.06.2025 Vancouver FC Vancouver FC 0-2 HT 0-0 Forge Forge KAPL
22.09.2024 Vancouver FC Vancouver FC 1-3 HT 0-1 Forge Forge KAPL
19.08.2024 Vancouver FC Vancouver FC 1-2 HT 0-1 Forge Forge KAPL
06.07.2024 Forge Forge 3-3 HT 1-2 Vancouver FC Vancouver FC KAPL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Forge
1-1
AWAY Vancouver FC
1.81 xG 0.46
60% Ball Possession 40%
14 Total Shots 6
5 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 1
452 Passes 279
89% Pass Accuracy 81%
31 Box Touches 9
29 Crosses 4
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Forge vs Vancouver FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Forge and Vancouver FC couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Forge at 80% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (66%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Forge had 60% of the ball to Vancouver FC's 40%, shots finished 14-6, expected goals 1.81 to 0.46.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Forge had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Forge and 1.00 for Vancouver FC.

What was the final score of Forge vs Vancouver FC?

Forge 1-1 Vancouver FC in the Kanada - Premier League on 04/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Forge vs Vancouver FC?

Before kick-off our model rated a Forge win the most likely single outcome at about 80%, with the full match-result split Forge 80%, draw 14%, Vancouver FC 6%. The final score 1-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Forge) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
KAPL More Kanada - Premier League
4 Oct 2025
21:00 HFX Wanderers vs York United Analysis →