HFX Wanderers 1-1 York United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Kanada - Premier League, 4 Oct 2025

📅04/10/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.19
Draw
21%
3.35
Away
36%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.95
Over 2.5
53%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.66
No
48%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.39
2-3 Goals
43%
1.76
4-5 Goals
22%
3.2
6+ Goals
10%
11.45
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
7%
1/X
5%
X/1
19%
X/2
14%
X/X
9%
2/1
8%
2/2
16%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
42%
+1.4pp
21%
Draw
26%
-5.5pp
36%
Away Win
32%
+4.1pp
47%
Under 2.5
48%
-0.1pp
53%
Over 2.5
52%
+0.1pp
52%
BTTS Yes
56%
-4.0pp
48%
BTTS No
44%
+4.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME HFX Wanderers EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY York United EU Bookmakers 36%
+8% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +16% / +27%
2.04/1.12 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.20/1.70
+41% / +43% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / +5%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
350 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 315 · 78%
21.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.1
16.3 Crosses 18.6
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME HFX Wanderers
4W-0D-2L
AWAY York United
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.61 xG 0.93
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
378 Passes 381
84% Pass Accuracy 84%
17 Box Touches 19
13 Crosses 20
4 Yellow Cards 3
01.09.2025 HFX Wanderers HFX Wanderers 4-0 HT 2-0 York United York United KAPL
01.06.2025 York United York United 2-0 HT 1-0 HFX Wanderers HFX Wanderers KAPL
13.04.2025 York United York United 1-2 HT 1-0 HFX Wanderers HFX Wanderers KAPL
19.10.2024 HFX Wanderers HFX Wanderers 2-1 HT 0-1 York United York United KAPL
02.09.2024 HFX Wanderers HFX Wanderers 2-1 HT 1-0 York United York United KAPL
06.07.2024 York United York United 2-1 HT 1-0 HFX Wanderers HFX Wanderers KAPL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME HFX Wanderers
1-1
AWAY York United
0.90 xG 0.85
41% Ball Possession 59%
10 Total Shots 8
2 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 4
274 Passes 436
78% Pass Accuracy 86%
21 Box Touches 13
17 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH HFX Wanderers vs York United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

HFX Wanderers and York United shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was HFX Wanderers at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, HFX Wanderers had 41% of the ball to York United's 59%, shots finished 10-8, expected goals 0.90 to 0.85.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, HFX Wanderers had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for HFX Wanderers and 1.17 for York United.

What was the final score of HFX Wanderers vs York United?

HFX Wanderers 1-1 York United in the Kanada - Premier League on 04/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for HFX Wanderers vs York United?

Before kick-off our model rated a HFX Wanderers win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split HFX Wanderers 43%, draw 21%, York United 36%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (HFX Wanderers), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (HFX Wanderers) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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