The New Saints 3-0 Caernarfon Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Wales - League Cup, 4 Nov 2025

📅04/11/2025 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
62%
1.49
Draw
18%
4.34
Away
20%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
31%
Over 2.5
69%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
60%
1.46
No
40%
2.51
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
15%
2-3 Goals
35%
4-5 Goals
32%
6+ Goals
18%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
1/2
3%
1/X
5%
X/1
21%
X/2
10%
X/X
10%
2/1
10%
2/2
6%
2/X
3%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
62%
Home Win
63%
-0.5pp
18%
Draw
20%
-1.7pp
20%
Away Win
18%
+2.2pp
60%
BTTS Yes
64%
-3.8pp
40%
BTTS No
36%
+3.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME The New Saints EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Caernarfon Town EU Bookmakers 21%
+17% / +17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -20% / -20%
2.61/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.69/2.89
+4% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +70% / -28%
60% Ball Possession 40%
15 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
432 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 306 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
0.0 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME The New Saints
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Caernarfon Town
3.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
66% Ball Possession 34%
21 Total Shots 8
11 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 2
0 Yellow Cards 1
07.10.2025 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town 1-3 HT 0-2 The New Saints The New Saints GAL
11.03.2025 The New Saints The New Saints 2-0 HT 1-0 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town GAL
11.02.2025 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town 0-1 HT 0-1 The New Saints The New Saints GAL
26.12.2024 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town 2-5 HT 2-3 The New Saints The New Saints GAL
09.10.2024 The New Saints The New Saints 1-2 HT 1-1 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town GAL
05.04.2024 The New Saints The New Saints 7-1 HT 4-0 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town GAL
POST-MATCH The New Saints vs Caernarfon Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

The New Saints ran out comfortable winners over Caernarfon Town 3-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had The New Saints as the likeliest winner at 62%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead. On goals, over 2.5 goals (69%) landed while both teams to score (60%) missed.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, The New Saints had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 3.17 goals for The New Saints and 1.00 for Caernarfon Town.

What was the final score of The New Saints vs Caernarfon Town?

The New Saints 3-0 Caernarfon Town in the Wales - League Cup on 04/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for The New Saints vs Caernarfon Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a The New Saints win the most likely single outcome at about 62%, with the full match-result split The New Saints 62%, draw 18%, Caernarfon Town 20%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (The New Saints), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (The New Saints) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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