Caernarfon Town 2-5 The New Saints — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Wales - Premier League, 26 Dec 2024

📅26/12/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 1-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
14%
7.95
Draw
13%
5.71
Away
73%
1.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
24%
3.14
Over 2.5
76%
1.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
61%
1.7
No
39%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
14%
7.37
2-3 Goals
37%
2.2
4-5 Goals
32%
2.31
6+ Goals
17%
4.09
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
4%
1/2
12%
1/X
4%
X/1
5%
X/2
24%
X/X
4%
2/1
4%
2/2
38%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
14%
Home Win
10%
+3.8pp
13%
Draw
15%
-1.8pp
74%
Away Win
76%
-2.0pp
24%
Under 2.5
28%
-4.2pp
76%
Over 2.5
72%
+4.2pp
61%
BTTS Yes
55%
+6.0pp
39%
BTTS No
45%
-6.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Caernarfon Town EU Bookmakers 13%
Head to Head
AWAY The New Saints EU Bookmakers 80%
+2% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -18%
0.75/3.58 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.85/0.70
-8% / -30% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +22% / +30%
43% Ball Possession 57%
9 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 9
4 Corners 7
297 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 477 · 86%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.2 Yellow Cards 1.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Caernarfon Town
1W-0D-5L
AWAY The New Saints
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 3.67
32% Ball Possession 68%
6 Total Shots 24
3 Shots on Target 12
2 Corners 9
1 Yellow Cards 0
09.10.2024 The New Saints The New Saints 1-2 HT 1-1 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town GAL
05.04.2024 The New Saints The New Saints 7-1 HT 4-0 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town GAL
23.02.2024 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town 1-8 HT 1-4 The New Saints The New Saints GAL
26.12.2023 The New Saints The New Saints 2-1 HT 0-1 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town GAL
26.09.2023 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town 1-3 HT 1-0 The New Saints The New Saints GAL
03.01.2023 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town 0-1 HT 0-0 The New Saints The New Saints GAL
POST-MATCH Caernarfon Town vs The New Saints
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

The New Saints ran out comfortable winners over Caernarfon Town 5-2 away from home. Half-time: 2-3. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had The New Saints as the likeliest winner at 74%, and the 5-2 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (76%), both teams to score (61%), and both reads landed as well.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, The New Saints led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Caernarfon Town and 3.67 for The New Saints.

What was the final score of Caernarfon Town vs The New Saints?

Caernarfon Town 2-5 The New Saints in the Wales - Premier League on 26/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Caernarfon Town vs The New Saints?

Before kick-off our model rated an The New Saints win the most likely single outcome at about 74%, with the full match-result split Caernarfon Town 14%, draw 13%, The New Saints 74%. The final score 2-5 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (The New Saints), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (The New Saints) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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