Caernarfon Town 1-3 The New Saints — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Wales - Premier League, 7 Oct 2025

📅07/10/2025 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 1-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
14%
5.91
Draw
20%
4.81
Away
66%
1.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
40%
2.96
Over 2.5
60%
1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.56
No
42%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
18%
6.63
2-3 Goals
41%
2.15
4-5 Goals
26%
2.37
6+ Goals
15%
4.51
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
5%
1/2
10%
1/X
7%
X/1
5%
X/2
31%
X/X
10%
2/1
3%
2/2
25%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
14%
Home Win
14%
-0.2pp
20%
Draw
18%
+2.4pp
66%
Away Win
68%
-2.2pp
40%
Under 2.5
30%
+10.0pp
60%
Over 2.5
70%
-10.0pp
58%
BTTS Yes
60%
-1.9pp
42%
BTTS No
40%
+1.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Caernarfon Town EU Bookmakers 17%
Head to Head
AWAY The New Saints EU Bookmakers 72%
+5% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -14%
1.07/2.77 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.69/0.66
+19% / -31% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +29% / +32%
42% Ball Possession 58%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 7
6 Corners 5
277 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 473 · 85%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 1.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Caernarfon Town
1W-0D-5L
AWAY The New Saints
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 4.00
34% Ball Possession 66%
7 Total Shots 21
3 Shots on Target 11
2 Corners 8
0 Yellow Cards 0
11.03.2025 The New Saints The New Saints 2-0 HT 1-0 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town GAL
11.02.2025 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town 0-1 HT 0-1 The New Saints The New Saints GAL
26.12.2024 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town 2-5 HT 2-3 The New Saints The New Saints GAL
09.10.2024 The New Saints The New Saints 1-2 HT 1-1 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town GAL
05.04.2024 The New Saints The New Saints 7-1 HT 4-0 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town GAL
23.02.2024 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town 1-8 HT 1-4 The New Saints The New Saints GAL
POST-MATCH Caernarfon Town vs The New Saints
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

The New Saints beat Caernarfon Town 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

As we said in the preview, our model had The New Saints as the likeliest winner at 66%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (60%), both teams to score (58%), and both reads landed as well.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, The New Saints led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Caernarfon Town and 4.00 for The New Saints.

What was the final score of Caernarfon Town vs The New Saints?

Caernarfon Town 1-3 The New Saints in the Wales - Premier League on 07/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Caernarfon Town vs The New Saints?

Before kick-off our model rated an The New Saints win the most likely single outcome at about 66%, with the full match-result split Caernarfon Town 14%, draw 20%, The New Saints 66%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (The New Saints), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (The New Saints) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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