The New Saints 2-0 Caernarfon Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Wales - Premier League, 11 Mar 2025

📅11/03/2025 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
64%
1.18
Draw
20%
6.26
Away
16%
8.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
3.14
Over 2.5
59%
1.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.9
No
48%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
7.15
2-3 Goals
39%
2.2
4-5 Goals
28%
2.32
6+ Goals
13%
4.13
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
37%
1/2
4%
1/X
6%
X/1
20%
X/2
4%
X/X
9%
2/1
6%
2/2
8%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
64%
Home Win
79%
-15.7pp
20%
Draw
12%
+7.7pp
16%
Away Win
8%
+8.2pp
41%
Under 2.5
28%
+12.5pp
59%
Over 2.5
72%
-12.5pp
52%
BTTS Yes
49%
+3.6pp
48%
BTTS No
51%
-3.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME The New Saints EU Bookmakers 85%
Head to Head
AWAY Caernarfon Town EU Bookmakers 11%
-3% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +9%
3.44/0.79 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/2.72
+29% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +43% / -9%
60% Ball Possession 40%
17 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
463 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 226 · 70%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.0 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME The New Saints
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Caernarfon Town
4.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
65% Ball Possession 35%
24 Total Shots 8
13 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 2
0 Yellow Cards 0
11.02.2025 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town 0-1 HT 0-1 The New Saints The New Saints GAL
26.12.2024 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town 2-5 HT 2-3 The New Saints The New Saints GAL
09.10.2024 The New Saints The New Saints 1-2 HT 1-1 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town GAL
05.04.2024 The New Saints The New Saints 7-1 HT 4-0 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town GAL
23.02.2024 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town 1-8 HT 1-4 The New Saints The New Saints GAL
26.12.2023 The New Saints The New Saints 2-1 HT 0-1 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town GAL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME The New Saints
2-0
AWAY Caernarfon Town
68% Ball Possession 32%
11 Total Shots 4
6 Shots on Target 1
7 Corners 1
POST-MATCH The New Saints vs Caernarfon Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

The New Saints saw off Caernarfon Town 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had The New Saints as the likeliest winner at 64%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, The New Saints had 68% of the ball to Caernarfon Town's 32%, shots finished 11-4.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, The New Saints had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 4.00 goals for The New Saints and 1.17 for Caernarfon Town.

What was the final score of The New Saints vs Caernarfon Town?

The New Saints 2-0 Caernarfon Town in the Wales - Premier League on 11/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for The New Saints vs Caernarfon Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a The New Saints win the most likely single outcome at about 64%, with the full match-result split The New Saints 64%, draw 20%, Caernarfon Town 16%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (The New Saints) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (The New Saints) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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