Barry Town 2-1 Aberystwyth Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Wales - Premier League, 11 Mar 2025

📅11/03/2025 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.42
Draw
27%
4.34
Away
19%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.1
Over 2.5
48%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.9
No
49%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
23%
3.83
2-3 Goals
46%
1.8
4-5 Goals
21%
2.93
6+ Goals
10%
9.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.83 — our 23% vs market 19.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
5%
1/X
4%
X/1
18%
X/2
5%
X/X
15%
2/1
8%
2/2
10%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
66%
-12.0pp
27%
Draw
20%
+7.0pp
19%
Away Win
14%
+5.0pp
52%
Under 2.5
44%
+8.0pp
48%
Over 2.5
56%
-8.0pp
51%
BTTS Yes
49%
+2.6pp
49%
BTTS No
51%
-2.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Barry Town EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Aberystwyth Town EU Bookmakers 17%
+7% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +7%
2.10/0.98 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.97/1.89
+6% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / -5%
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 6
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 2
405 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 327 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 1.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Barry Town
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Aberystwyth Town
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
58% Ball Possession 42%
13 Total Shots 8
9 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
24.01.2025 Aberystwyth Town Aberystwyth Town 1-2 HT 0-0 Barry Town Barry Town GAL
27.09.2024 Barry Town Barry Town 1-0 HT 0-0 Aberystwyth Town Aberystwyth Town GAL
23.08.2024 Aberystwyth Town Aberystwyth Town 1-0 HT 1-0 Barry Town Barry Town GAL
13.04.2024 Barry Town Barry Town 2-1 HT 1-0 Aberystwyth Town Aberystwyth Town GAL
02.03.2024 Aberystwyth Town Aberystwyth Town 1-1 HT 1-1 Barry Town Barry Town GAL
13.01.2024 Aberystwyth Town Aberystwyth Town 2-4 HT 1-0 Barry Town Barry Town GAL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Barry Town
2-1
AWAY Aberystwyth Town
59% Ball Possession 41%
28 Total Shots 6
10 Shots on Target 1
8 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Barry Town vs Aberystwyth Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Barry Town squeezed past Aberystwyth Town 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Barry Town as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Barry Town had 59% of the ball to Aberystwyth Town's 41%, shots finished 28-6.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Barry Town had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Barry Town and 1.00 for Aberystwyth Town.

What was the final score of Barry Town vs Aberystwyth Town?

Barry Town 2-1 Aberystwyth Town in the Wales - Premier League on 11/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Barry Town vs Aberystwyth Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Barry Town win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Barry Town 54%, draw 27%, Aberystwyth Town 19%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Barry Town), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Barry Town) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
GAL More Wales - Premier League
11 Mar 2025
22:45 Briton Ferry vs Newtown Analysis →
22:45 Connahs Quay vs Flint Town United Analysis →
22:45 The New Saints vs Caernarfon Town Analysis →