Bala Town 1-3 Connahs Quay — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Wales - Premier League, 7 Oct 2025

📅07/10/2025 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
23%
3.69
Draw
32%
3.64
Away
45%
1.77
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.9
Over 2.5
42%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.81
No
46%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
34%
3.15
2-3 Goals
35%
1.75
4-5 Goals
20%
3.39
6+ Goals
11%
13.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.15 — our 34% vs market 25.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
6%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
9%
X/2
17%
X/X
16%
2/1
7%
2/2
24%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
23%
Home Win
24%
-1.0pp
32%
Draw
24%
+7.7pp
46%
Away Win
52%
-6.7pp
58%
Under 2.5
49%
+9.0pp
42%
Over 2.5
51%
-9.0pp
54%
BTTS Yes
51%
+2.3pp
46%
BTTS No
49%
-2.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bala Town EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Connahs Quay EU Bookmakers 56%
+2% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -18% / -27%
1.08/1.47 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.68/1.19
+1% / +8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -20% / -20%
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
328 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 294 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
0.7 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bala Town
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Connahs Quay
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
36% Ball Possession 64%
7 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 5
3 Yellow Cards 2
02.09.2025 Connahs Quay Connahs Quay 1-3 HT 0-0 Bala Town Bala Town GAL
17.01.2025 Connahs Quay Connahs Quay 0-2 HT 0-0 Bala Town Bala Town GAL
14.01.2025 Connahs Quay Connahs Quay 3-0 Bala Town Bala Town GAL
15.10.2024 Bala Town Bala Town 0-0 HT 0-0 Connahs Quay Connahs Quay GAL
12.04.2024 Connahs Quay Connahs Quay 0-0 HT 0-0 Bala Town Bala Town GAL
23.03.2024 Connahs Quay Connahs Quay 1-0 HT 0-0 Bala Town Bala Town GALWK
POST-MATCH Bala Town vs Connahs Quay
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Connahs Quay beat Bala Town 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 1-2.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Connahs Quay as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%) — went the other way, though.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Bala Town and 0.83 for Connahs Quay.

What was the final score of Bala Town vs Connahs Quay?

Bala Town 1-3 Connahs Quay in the Wales - Premier League on 07/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bala Town vs Connahs Quay?

Before kick-off our model rated an Connahs Quay win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Bala Town 23%, draw 32%, Connahs Quay 46%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Connahs Quay), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Connahs Quay) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
GAL More Wales - Premier League
7 Oct 2025
21:45 Caernarfon Town vs The New Saints Analysis →
21:45 Llanelli Town vs Cardiff MU Analysis →
21:45 Barry Town vs Briton Ferry Analysis →
21:45 Penybont vs Haverfordwest County Analysis →
21:45 Flint Town United vs Colwyn Bay Analysis →